Tulsa at Arkansas NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Arkansas by 11.3 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 69.0 combined points, with Arkansas at 40.0 and Tulsa at 28.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Arkansas's margin lands between -11.1 and +33.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Arkansas -11.3 / Tulsa +11.3 Moneyline: Arkansas -288 / Tulsa +288 Win probability: Arkansas 74.2% / Tulsa 25.8% Projected total: 69.0 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Arkansas: 1413.2, Tulsa: 1323.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Arkansas Tulsa ----------------- -------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +54.1 -28.9 travel_fatigue +0.0 +3.7 coaching_change -33.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +11.6 +12.4 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -6.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Tulsa 28.7 -- Arkansas 40.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Arkansas margin -11.1 -0.7 +11.1 +23.2 +33.8 Total points 47.1 57.3 68.8 80.0 90.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ARKANSAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- KJ Jackson QB Passing yards 181.5 97-291 Pass attempts 22.8 14-38 Completions 13.5 8-21 Passing TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 17.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.79 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Donovan Faupel WR Receiving yards 59.4 24-89 Receptions 5.1 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Chris Marshall WR Receiving yards 53.6 18-91 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 14% 1+ Jamari Hawkins WR Receiving yards 50.3 15-98 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Sutton Smith RB Rushing yards 43.5 3-76 Carries 8.2 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 10.0 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Braylen Russell RB Rushing yards 36.9 -- Carries 7.5 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaden Platt TE Receiving yards 34.4 11-62 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Matt Adcock TE Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Khmori House DB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Christian Harrison DB Tackles 5.2 3-9 Steven Soles Jr. DL Sacks 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Ben Bogle LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ TULSA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Baylor Hayes QB Passing yards 279.1 194-341 Pass attempts 30.7 22-41 Completions 18.1 12-23 Passing TDs 1.49 77% 1+, 44% 2+ Rushing yards 28.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Josh Smith WR Receiving yards 67.9 32-133 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ David Wells Jr. WR Receiving yards 61.7 26-117 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Damari Alston RB Rushing yards 58.2 17-103 Carries 10.6 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Trequan Jones RB Rushing yards 57.4 16-94 Carries 8.9 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 8.0 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Grayson Tempest WR Receiving yards 52.8 17-92 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Jewlyen Roberts TE Receiving yards 9.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Devin Hightower LB Tackles 6.7 4-9 Zach Williams S Tackles 5.4 3-10 Thomas Davis DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Dax Collins LB Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Arkansas recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Tulsa recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10315