Oregon State at UTEP NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UTEP by 4.5 points, giving them a 60% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 44.8 combined points, with UTEP at 25.0 and Oregon State at 20.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, UTEP's margin lands between -17.1 and +27.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: UTEP -4.5 / Oregon State +4.5 Moneyline: UTEP -152 / Oregon State +152 Win probability: UTEP 60.3% / Oregon State 39.7% Projected total: 44.8 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- UTEP: 1284.5, Oregon State: 1271.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor UTEP Oregon State ----------------- ----- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -50.8 -21.3 travel_fatigue +2.3 +2.0 coaching_change +9.5 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Oregon State 20.1 -- UTEP 25.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- UTEP margin -17.1 -6.8 +4.8 +16.4 +27.1 Total points 23.5 34.0 45.3 56.4 66.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: UTEP Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Judah Ezinwa TE Receiving yards 41.3 18-60 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lamar Sperling RB Rushing yards 39.6 -- Carries 6.7 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 11.8 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylan Brown WR Receiving yards 28.1 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marcus Torres WR Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elijah McCoy RB Rushing yards 17.0 -- Carries 4.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Royal Capell WR Receiving yards 14.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayden Wilson LB Tackles 7.4 4-12 Xavier Smith S Tackles 5.5 3-8 Ekow Taylor DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Vashon Brunswick II LB Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ OREGON STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Maalik Murphy QB Passing yards 189.6 105-328 Pass attempts 29.3 20-47 Completions 17.4 11-30 Passing TDs 1.21 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards -1.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Cornell Hatcher Jr. RB Rushing yards 49.3 8-85 Carries 8.8 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 17.1 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Kourdey Glass RB Rushing yards 40.7 -- Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eddie Freauff WR Receiving yards 23.9 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Gabe Milbourn TE Receiving yards 23.1 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DeCorion Temple TE Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Malachi Durant WR Receiving yards 10.6 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Aiden Sullivan LB Tackles 7.0 4-10 Jaheim Patterson DB Tackles 5.2 3-7 Jacob Schuster DT Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Jaylen Hill DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ UTEP recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Oregon State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10316