Rice at Fresno State NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 2:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Fresno State by 12.5 points, giving them a 76% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 43.9 combined points, with Fresno State at 28.1 and Rice at 15.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Fresno State's margin lands between -9.9 and +34.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Fresno State -12.5 / Rice +12.5 Moneyline: Fresno State -322 / Rice +322 Win probability: Fresno State 76.3% / Rice 23.7% Projected total: 43.9 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Fresno State: 1506.2, Rice: 1352.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Fresno State Rice ----------------- ------------ ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -36.6 -60.4 travel_fatigue +3.4 +0.0 coaching_change +9.5 +11.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Rice 15.8 -- Fresno State 28.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Fresno State margin -9.9 +0.5 +12.1 +24.2 +34.9 Total points 22.5 32.6 44.0 55.4 65.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: FRESNO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Khristian Martin QB Passing yards 82.2 -- Pass attempts 6.0 -- Completions 4.4 -- Passing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Rushing yards 9.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josiah Freeman WR Rushing yards 13.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 63.9 28-114 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rayshon Luke RB Rushing yards 60.4 20-102 Carries 9.8 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Receiving yards 22.7 3-37 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Brandon Ramirez RB Rushing yards 46.1 5-70 Carries 8.3 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 22.2 3-40 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jahlil McClain WR Receiving yards 38.3 3-58 Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Harold Duvall WR Receiving yards 31.6 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jake Appleget TE Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ K'vion Thunderbird LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Tytus Khajavi LB Tackles 5.1 2-6 Sione Noa DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Jahzon Jacks DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ RICE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Quinton Jackson RB Rushing yards 57.7 17-118 Carries 12.0 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ D'Andre Hardeman Jr. RB Rushing yards 38.0 -- Carries 8.8 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Payton Matthews WR Receiving yards 30.4 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ James Falk TE Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Stone Combs LB Tackles 5.8 3-7 AJ Brown DE Tackles 5.5 4-8 Daveon Hook S Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Joseph Mutombo DL Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Fresno State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Rice recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10317