Georgia Tech at Stanford NCAA, Week 4, 2026 regular season Kickoff: September 27, 2026 at 2:30 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia Tech by 5.5 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.3 combined points, with Stanford at 22.4 and Georgia Tech at 27.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Stanford's margin lands between -27.8 and +16.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Niki Prongos (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Stanford +5.5 / Georgia Tech -5.5 Moneyline: Stanford +168 / Georgia Tech -168 Win probability: Stanford 37.3% / Georgia Tech 62.7% Projected total: 50.3 points Last recalculated: September 8, 2026 at 6:01 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Stanford: 1437.3, Georgia Tech: 1520.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Stanford Georgia Tech ----------------- -------- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard -3.0 +0.0 roster_talent +14.9 +46.9 travel_fatigue +4.0 -2.4 coaching_change -20.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -18.2 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Georgia Tech 27.9 -- Stanford 22.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Stanford margin -27.8 -17.4 -5.5 +6.3 +16.7 Total points 29.0 39.0 50.4 61.8 71.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: STANFORD Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Micah Ford RB Rushing yards 66.1 25-122 Carries 12.9 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 22.7 3-50 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caden High WR Receiving yards 45.1 9-87 Receptions 3.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Sedrick Irvin RB Rushing yards 36.7 -- Carries 7.8 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 11.6 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benji Blackburn TE Receiving yards 31.7 8-53 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Marcus Brown WR Receiving yards 21.2 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Jordan Onovughe WR Receiving yards 20.8 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Rose LB Tackles 9.3 6-12 Jahsiah Galvan LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Gabe Kaminski LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Scotty Edwards S Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ GEORGIA TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alberto Mendoza QB Passing yards 166.0 81-285 Pass attempts 15.5 6-25 Completions 10.2 4-17 Passing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Rushing yards 31.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Justice Haynes RB Rushing yards 73.1 32-111 Carries 14.3 8-19 Rushing TDs 1.16 69% 1+, 32% 2+ Receiving yards 11.9 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Allen WR Rushing yards 31.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Receiving yards 54.0 18-114 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Malachi Hosley RB Rushing yards 43.6 3-80 Carries 9.5 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Receiving yards 16.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gavin Harris TE Receiving yards 32.8 9-53 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ E.J. Lightsey LB Tackles 6.7 4-9 Kyle Efford LB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Brayden Manley DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Cayman Spaulding LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Stanford recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Georgia Tech recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------ Niki Prongos OL STAN Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10318