Western Kentucky at New Mexico State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 2, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Western Kentucky by 5.2 points, giving them a 62% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.2 combined points, with New Mexico State at 25.1 and Western Kentucky at 30.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New Mexico State's margin lands between -27.2 and +16.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New Mexico State +5.2 / Western Kentucky -5.2 Moneyline: New Mexico State +163 / Western Kentucky -163 Win probability: New Mexico State 38.1% / Western Kentucky 61.9% Projected total: 55.2 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New Mexico State: 1285.7, Western Kentucky: 1433.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New Mexico State Western Kentucky ----------------- ---------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -93.5 -26.7 travel_fatigue -5.0 -0.1 coaching_change +7.1 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency -0.7 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +15.4 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Western Kentucky 30.3 -- New Mexico State 25.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- New Mexico State margin -27.2 -16.7 -5.3 +6.3 +16.8 Total points 33.9 44.2 55.2 66.8 76.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW MEXICO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Adam Damante QB Passing yards 198.0 114-348 Pass attempts 28.4 20-51 Completions 18.2 12-34 Passing TDs 1.10 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 7.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.29 26% 1+ TK King WR Rushing yards 8.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 52.0 16-99 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Dijon Stanley RB Rushing yards 46.5 6-85 Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brodie Malone-Bradford WR Receiving yards 34.2 -- Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Isaiah Rudison RB Rushing yards 30.8 -- Carries 6.4 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 13.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ray Lotten TE Receiving yards 30.1 6-52 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lyndon Ravare WR Receiving yards 29.0 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Tory Gethers LB Tackles 7.3 4-11 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Sone Aupiu LB Tackles 6.6 4-10 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ WESTERN KENTUCKY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rodney Tisdale Jr. QB Passing yards 203.7 119-328 Pass attempts 30.7 22-42 Completions 19.1 13-28 Passing TDs 1.11 67% 1+, 31% 2+ Rushing yards 18.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Ajay Allen RB Rushing yards 56.9 16-114 Carries 11.6 6-22 Rushing TDs 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 22.1 3-52 Receptions 2.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ K.D. Hutchinson WR Rushing yards 15.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Receiving yards 48.7 13-78 Receptions 5.5 4-7 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Moussa Barry WR Receiving yards 36.7 1-58 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Kalib Hicks RB Rushing yards 34.9 -- Carries 8.4 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cameron Flowers WR Receiving yards 31.8 -- Receptions 3.1 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lofton Howard TE Receiving yards 9.9 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Wester LB Tackles 8.1 5-14 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Jaylen Lewis DB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Zeiqui Lawton DT Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ New Mexico State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Western Kentucky recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 NMSU 16 WKU 35 WKU 2024 WKU 41 NMSU 28 WKU 2023 NMSU 38 WKU 29 NMSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10319