North Texas at Tulsa NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 2, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors North Texas by 8.6 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 70.8 combined points, with Tulsa at 31.3 and North Texas at 39.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tulsa's margin lands between -30.8 and +13.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tulsa +8.6 / North Texas -8.6 Moneyline: Tulsa +224 / North Texas -224 Win probability: Tulsa 30.8% / North Texas 69.2% Projected total: 70.8 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tulsa: 1355.6, North Texas: 1632.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tulsa North Texas ----------------- ----- ----------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -21.7 -30.9 travel_fatigue +2.9 +3.4 coaching_change +7.1 -20.1 ncaa_efficiency +12.4 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +3.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: North Texas 39.8 -- Tulsa 31.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Tulsa margin -30.8 -20.1 -8.4 +2.9 +13.4 Total points 49.5 59.8 71.1 82.3 92.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TULSA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Baylor Hayes QB Passing yards 179.9 96-233 Pass attempts 30.1 22-40 Completions 18.0 12-23 Passing TDs 1.05 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 20.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Trequan Jones RB Rushing yards 62.1 21-104 Carries 9.2 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 7.5 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Damari Alston RB Rushing yards 53.6 13-91 Carries 10.8 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 24.4 5-46 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Smith WR Receiving yards 49.7 14-97 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Grayson Tempest WR Receiving yards 38.6 3-67 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ David Wells Jr. WR Receiving yards 38.2 3-75 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Jewlyen Roberts TE Receiving yards 7.3 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Devin Hightower LB Tackles 6.7 4-9 Chris Thompson Jr. LB Tackles 6.2 4-12 Thomas Davis DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Kyran Duhon DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ NORTH TEXAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tayven Jackson QB Passing yards 246.8 163-312 Pass attempts 30.4 22-35 Completions 19.3 13-24 Passing TDs 1.35 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Rushing yards 12.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Corri Milliner WR Receiving yards 61.7 26-90 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Jahiem White RB Rushing yards 56.7 16-104 Carries 11.1 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.85 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 21.6 2-42 Receptions 3.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Brendon Haygood RB Rushing yards 38.3 -- Carries 10.1 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Dalton Carnes WR Receiving yards 30.0 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brec Long TE Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Aaron Alexander LB Tackles 7.5 4-12 David Onuoha DL Tackles 4.7 4-7 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Udoka Ezeani DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Tulsa recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games North Texas recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 TLSA 20 UNT 52 UNT 2023 UNT 35 TLSA 28 UNT ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10320