Liberty at Delaware NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 2, 2026 at 11:00 PM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Delaware by 4.9 points, giving them a 61% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 68.2 combined points, with Delaware at 36.3 and Liberty at 31.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Delaware's margin lands between -17.3 and +26.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Delaware -4.9 / Liberty +4.9 Moneyline: Delaware -159 / Liberty +159 Win probability: Delaware 61.3% / Liberty 38.7% Projected total: 68.2 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Delaware: 1438.2, Liberty: 1404.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Delaware Liberty ----------------- -------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -100.0 -22.8 travel_fatigue +2.0 +3.4 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Liberty 31.6 -- Delaware 36.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Delaware margin -17.3 -6.7 +4.7 +16.1 +26.7 Total points 46.2 56.5 68.0 79.2 89.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: DELAWARE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nick Minicucci QB Passing yards 244.7 160-330 Pass attempts 35.0 26-45 Completions 21.3 15-27 Passing TDs 2.05 87% 1+, 61% 2+ Rushing yards 17.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Sean Wilson WR Receiving yards 62.6 27-108 Receptions 5.0 3-7 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Jo Silver RB Rushing yards 55.4 15-99 Carries 11.2 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 23.1 4-48 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Viron Ellison Jr. RB Rushing yards 45.3 4-75 Carries 10.5 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 20.7 1-44 Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Bryson Graves WR Receiving yards 30.3 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Donovan Lewis WR Receiving yards 28.7 -- Receptions 2.8 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Elijah Sessoms TE Receiving yards 25.2 1-41 Receptions 2.7 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Scott Moore TE Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Gavin Moul LB Tackles 8.0 5-11 KT Seay S Tackles 6.0 4-8 Trace Scott III DT Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Brandon Gorham DE Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ LIBERTY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ethan Vasko QB Passing yards 193.8 110-264 Pass attempts 26.9 18-36 Completions 15.5 10-22 Passing TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Rushing yards 23.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Kam Davis RB Rushing yards 47.2 6-72 Carries 10.5 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Terron Kellman RB Rushing yards 42.5 2-72 Carries 8.8 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.72 52% 1+, 16% 2+ Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caleb Ryan TE Receiving yards 42.1 18-92 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamari Person WR Receiving yards 34.5 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ LaKelsey Johnson Jr. TE Receiving yards 26.4 2-29 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derrell Farrar LB Tackles 6.5 4-10 Jeremiah Vessel S Tackles 5.2 3-9 Joe Strickland DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Nathan Pirolli DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Delaware recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Liberty recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 DEL 30 LIB 59 LIB ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10321