Penn State at Northwestern NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 12:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Penn State by 8.3 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.1 combined points, with Northwestern at 16.1 and Penn State at 24.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Northwestern's margin lands between -30.5 and +13.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Northwestern +8.3 / Penn State -8.3 Moneyline: Northwestern +218 / Penn State -218 Win probability: Northwestern 31.5% / Penn State 68.5% Projected total: 40.1 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Northwestern: 1498.9, Penn State: 1704.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Northwestern Penn State ----------------- ------------ ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +12.0 +45.1 travel_fatigue +0.0 +2.0 coaching_change +11.8 -20.1 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Penn State 24.2 -- Northwestern 16.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Northwestern margin -30.5 -19.6 -8.0 +3.7 +13.7 Total points 19.2 29.2 40.4 51.6 61.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NORTHWESTERN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nicco Marchiol QB Passing yards 146.1 62-178 Pass attempts 26.5 18-28 Completions 17.1 11-20 Passing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Rushing yards 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caleb Komolafe RB Rushing yards 67.2 26-104 Carries 13.8 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Griffin Wilde WR Receiving yards 52.0 16-83 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Joseph Himon II RB Rushing yards 47.6 7-74 Carries 10.3 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Hayden Eligon II WR Receiving yards 45.1 10-84 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Ricky Ahumaraeze WR Receiving yards 29.7 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alex Honig TE Receiving yards 23.6 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Robert Fitzgerald DB Tackles 7.6 6-12 Braydon Brus LB Tackles 7.2 4-11 Migo Jackson DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Michael Kilbane DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ PENN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Rocco Becht QB Passing yards 185.4 101-257 Pass attempts 27.6 19-36 Completions 16.9 10-23 Passing TDs 1.46 77% 1+, 43% 2+ Rushing yards 11.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Carson Hansen RB Rushing yards 73.0 32-114 Carries 13.8 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Koby Howard WR Receiving yards 49.7 14-103 Receptions 2.8 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Chase Sowell WR Receiving yards 44.6 9-70 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ James Peoples RB Rushing yards 39.5 -- Carries 7.4 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 12.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brett Eskildsen WR Receiving yards 36.9 1-66 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Benjamin Brahmer TE Receiving yards 31.5 7-53 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.68 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Gabe Burkle TE Receiving yards 23.3 -- Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tony Rojas LB Tackles 6.6 4-9 Kooper Ebel LB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Caleb Bacon LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Yvan Kemajou DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Northwestern recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Penn State recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 NU 22 PSU 21 NU 2023 PSU 41 NU 13 PSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10323