West Virginia at Iowa State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Iowa State by 9.5 points, giving them a 71% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 49.1 combined points, with Iowa State at 29.4 and West Virginia at 19.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Iowa State's margin lands between -12.6 and +31.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Iowa State -9.5 / West Virginia +9.5 Moneyline: Iowa State -243 / West Virginia +243 Win probability: Iowa State 70.9% / West Virginia 29.1% Projected total: 49.1 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Iowa State: 1567.0, West Virginia: 1462.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Iowa State West Virginia ----------------- ---------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -1.4 +21.0 travel_fatigue +3.7 +1.8 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +18.6 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +3.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: West Virginia 19.8 -- Iowa State 29.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Iowa State margin -12.6 -2.2 +9.7 +21.3 +31.7 Total points 27.8 38.0 49.1 60.6 70.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: IOWA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jaylen Raynor QB Passing yards 307.6 223-411 Pass attempts 34.5 26-45 Completions 22.0 16-31 Passing TDs 2.02 87% 1+, 60% 2+ Rushing yards 39.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Aiden Flora RB Rushing yards 54.7 14-102 Carries 10.7 5-22 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Cameron Pettaway RB Rushing yards 43.8 3-74 Carries 8.7 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 24.9 6-86 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.42 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Omari Hayes WR Receiving yards 43.7 8-65 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Carter Pabst WR Receiving yards 37.8 2-66 Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Tyler Fortenberry TE Receiving yards 34.4 10-60 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Dominic Overby WR Receiving yards 30.9 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Sullivan Schlimgen LB Tackles 5.4 2-8 Malcolm Jones LB Tackles 4.8 2-8 Isaac Terrell DE Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Malaki Ta'ase DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ WEST VIRGINIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Scotty Fox Jr. QB Passing yards 183.8 100-310 Pass attempts 24.8 16-39 Completions 15.1 9-25 Passing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Rushing yards 21.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Cam Cook RB Rushing yards 76.6 36-95 Carries 17.1 12-22 Rushing TDs 1.01 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ John Neider WR Receiving yards 48.0 12-77 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ DJ Epps WR Rushing yards 9.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 45.5 10-84 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Josh Sapp TE Receiving yards 23.1 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ryan Ward TE Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Tyler Stolsky LB Tackles 7.6 4-13 Kamari Wilson S Tackles 6.9 4-9 Zeke Durham-Campbell DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Corey McIntyre Jr. DL Sacks 0.21 19% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Iowa State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games West Virginia recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 ISU 28 WVU 16 ISU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10324