Cincinnati at Arizona NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Arizona by 14.7 points, giving them a 80% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.9 combined points, with Arizona at 34.3 and Cincinnati at 19.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Arizona's margin lands between -7.2 and +37.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Arizona -14.7 / Cincinnati +14.7 Moneyline: Arizona -395 / Cincinnati +395 Win probability: Arizona 79.8% / Cincinnati 20.2% Projected total: 53.9 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Arizona: 1594.0, Cincinnati: 1493.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Arizona Cincinnati ----------------- ------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +16.2 -22.2 travel_fatigue +2.3 -0.7 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -4.6 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +7.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Cincinnati 19.6 -- Arizona 34.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Arizona margin -7.2 +3.2 +14.6 +26.2 +37.1 Total points 32.6 42.7 53.9 65.0 75.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ARIZONA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Noah Fifita QB Passing yards 260.7 176-320 Pass attempts 30.8 22-40 Completions 20.1 14-27 Passing TDs 2.10 88% 1+, 62% 2+ Rushing yards 29.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Ismail Mahdi RB Rushing yards 70.6 30-101 Carries 9.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 19.7 0-34 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Antwan Roberts Jr. RB Rushing yards 68.4 28-131 Carries 10.6 5-18 Rushing TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Receiving yards 26.1 7-48 Receptions 2.7 2-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Giovanni Richardson WR Receiving yards 39.6 4-60 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Chris Hunter III WR Receiving yards 39.5 4-64 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Tre Spivey WR Rushing yards 7.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 37.8 2-63 Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Cole Rusk TE Receiving yards 35.2 11-62 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taye Brown LB Tackles 7.4 4-10 Lee Molette III S Tackles 6.7 4-11 Zac Siulepa DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Everett Roussaw Jr. LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ CINCINNATI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- JC French IV QB Passing yards 149.6 65-215 Pass attempts 28.1 20-36 Completions 18.7 12-24 Passing TDs 1.10 67% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 24.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Gi'Bran Payne RB Rushing yards 51.5 11-102 Carries 10.4 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cole Tabb RB Rushing yards 46.6 6-84 Carries 11.2 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 13.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cade Wolford WR Rushing yards 18.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 37.4 2-67 Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ JV Gibson WR Receiving yards 31.8 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Gavin Grover TE Receiving yards 26.0 2-44 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isaiah Johnson WR Receiving yards 21.0 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jasper Beeler S Tackles 6.9 4-11 Jonathan Thompson LB Tackles 6.6 4-8 Chidera Otutu DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Montay Weedon LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Arizona recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Cincinnati recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2025 ARIZ 30 CIN 24 ARIZ ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10325