Arkansas at Texas A&M NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas A&M by 31.4 points, giving them a 95% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 72.5 combined points, with Texas A&M at 52.0 and Arkansas at 20.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Texas A&M's margin lands between +9.1 and +53.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Texas A&M -31.4 / Arkansas +31.4 Moneyline: Texas A&M -1879 / Arkansas +1879 Win probability: Texas A&M 95.0% / Arkansas 5.1% Projected total: 72.5 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Texas A&M: 1705.9, Arkansas: 1402.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Texas A&M Arkansas ----------------- --------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +43.3 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.7 coaching_change +7.1 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +11.6 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +18.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arkansas 20.6 -- Texas A&M 52.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- Texas A&M margin +9.1 +19.5 +31.4 +43.1 +53.9 Total points 50.8 61.2 72.7 83.8 94.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TEXAS A&M Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Marcel Reed QB Passing yards 287.6 203-400 Pass attempts 30.6 22-37 Completions 19.4 14-24 Passing TDs 2.25 89% 1+, 66% 2+ Rushing yards 48.2 8-91 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Rueben Owens II RB Rushing yards 62.5 22-96 Carries 11.2 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Receiving yards 20.9 2-32 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ashton Bethel-Roman WR Receiving yards 58.3 23-117 Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Mario Craver WR Rushing yards 23.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 55.7 20-87 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Isaiah Horton WR Receiving yards 51.8 16-82 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.93 60% 1+, 24% 2+ Richie Anderson III TE Receiving yards 34.7 10-64 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Houston Thomas TE Receiving yards 33.8 9-63 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Jamarion Morrow RB Rushing yards 29.2 -- Carries 7.4 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Receiving yards 23.2 4-35 Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Ray Coney LB Tackles 8.7 6-12 Tawfiq Byard S Tackles 6.5 4-10 Ryan Henderson DE Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Dalton Brooks S Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ARKANSAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- AJ Hill QB Passing yards 129.7 45-188 Pass attempts 23.7 15-34 Completions 13.2 7-17 Passing TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Chris Marshall WR Receiving yards 54.2 19-85 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Sutton Smith RB Rushing yards 51.0 10-91 Carries 8.2 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Receiving yards 12.1 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Donovan Faupel WR Receiving yards 48.9 13-75 Receptions 4.7 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Braylen Russell RB Rushing yards 43.4 3-62 Carries 7.5 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamari Hawkins WR Receiving yards 41.8 6-78 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Ty Lockwood TE Receiving yards 31.5 7-50 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaden Platt TE Receiving yards 30.4 6-55 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Khmori House DB Tackles 6.5 4-10 Christian Harrison DB Tackles 5.5 4-9 Steven Soles Jr. DL Sacks 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Ben Bogle LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Texas A&M recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Arkansas recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 TA&M 45 ARK 42 TA&M 2024 ARK 17 TA&M 21 TA&M 2023 TA&M 34 ARK 22 TA&M ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10326