Louisville at NC State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Louisville by 1.3 points, giving them a 53% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 54.1 combined points, with NC State at 26.4 and Louisville at 27.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, NC State's margin lands between -23.6 and +21.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: NC State +1.3 / Louisville -1.3 Moneyline: NC State +113 / Louisville -113 Win probability: NC State 47.0% / Louisville 53.0% Projected total: 54.1 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- NC State: 1522.3, Louisville: 1607.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor NC State Louisville ----------------- -------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +50.1 +40.0 travel_fatigue +3.5 +2.1 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -9.2 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +17.9 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Louisville 27.8 -- NC State 26.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- NC State margin -23.6 -13.1 -1.5 +10.2 +21.0 Total points 32.6 42.9 54.2 65.2 75.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NC STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- CJ Bailey QB Passing yards 185.5 101-262 Pass attempts 29.4 20-35 Completions 18.4 12-23 Passing TDs 1.47 77% 1+, 43% 2+ Rushing yards 22.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Victor Snow WR Rushing yards 16.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Receiving yards 59.5 24-111 Receptions 4.5 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Davion Dozier WR Receiving yards 41.9 6-67 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Jayden Scott RB Rushing yards 41.0 0-93 Carries 10.5 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Receiving yards 13.7 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Teddy Hoffmann WR Receiving yards 35.2 -- Receptions 2.3 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Davion Gause RB Rushing yards 30.5 -- Carries 8.9 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Receiving yards 14.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Asaad Brown Jr. CB Tackles 5.9 4-10 King Mack S Tackles 5.2 3-8 Harvey Dyson III LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Joseph Adedire DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ LOUISVILLE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lincoln Kienholz QB Passing yards 198.4 114-384 Pass attempts 21.5 13-36 Completions 13.1 7-22 Passing TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Rushing yards 28.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Tre Richardson WR Rushing yards 22.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 73.2 38-133 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.88 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Isaac Brown RB Rushing yards 59.4 19-120 Carries 11.8 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Keyjuan Brown RB Rushing yards 59.1 18-107 Carries 10.7 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 13.8 -- Receptions 1.6 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brody Foley TE Receiving yards 52.1 28-108 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Lawayne McCoy WR Receiving yards 49.3 14-89 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Jaleel Skinner TE Receiving yards 33.4 9-57 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ TreyShun Hurry WR Receiving yards 30.4 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Koen Entringer DB Tackles 5.9 4-9 Stanquan Clark LB Tackles 5.1 2-8 Tyler Thompson DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Clev Lubin DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ NC State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Louisville recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2023 LOU 13 NCSU 10 LOU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10327