Boston College at SMU NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors SMU by 27.1 points, giving them a 93% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 53.0 combined points, with SMU at 40.1 and Boston College at 12.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, SMU's margin lands between +5.2 and +49.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: SMU -27.1 / Boston College +27.1 Moneyline: SMU -1258 / Boston College +1258 Win probability: SMU 92.6% / Boston College 7.4% Projected total: 53.0 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- SMU: 1678.6, Boston College: 1401.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor SMU Boston College ----------------- ----- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +54.5 -5.3 travel_fatigue +1.7 -0.6 coaching_change +9.5 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency +0.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +13.2 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Boston College 12.9 -- SMU 40.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- SMU margin +5.2 +15.6 +27.3 +39.0 +49.6 Total points 31.7 41.5 53.0 64.4 74.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SMU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kevin Jennings QB Passing yards 330.3 246-428 Pass attempts 35.8 27-40 Completions 22.3 16-27 Passing TDs 2.24 89% 1+, 66% 2+ Rushing yards 16.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Kendrick Raphael RB Rushing yards 87.9 47-118 Carries 14.3 8-21 Rushing TDs 1.22 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Receiving yards 32.2 13-62 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Yannick Smith WR Receiving yards 70.8 35-126 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Yamir Knight WR Receiving yards 65.6 30-123 Receptions 4.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jalen Cooper WR Receiving yards 53.9 18-92 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Dramekco Green RB Rushing yards 49.8 9-69 Carries 9.6 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 26.8 8-55 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Randy Pittman TE Receiving yards 43.2 19-75 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Theo Melin Ohrstrom TE Receiving yards 30.9 6-52 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Alexander Kilgore LB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Tyren Polley S Tackles 6.3 4-10 Jarvis Lee S Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ BOSTON COLLEGE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Evan Dickens RB Rushing yards 70.0 29-153 Carries 14.8 9-26 Rushing TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaedn Skeete WR Receiving yards 50.5 15-91 Receptions 3.9 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Dawson Pough WR Receiving yards 40.4 5-81 Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Javarius Green WR Receiving yards 38.6 3-65 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaelan Chudzinski TE Receiving yards 34.0 10-62 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Nolan Ray RB Rushing yards 33.3 -- Carries 7.1 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Receiving yards 11.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zeke Moore TE Receiving yards 9.3 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ KP Price DB Tackles 6.6 4-9 Anthony Palano LB Tackles 6.2 4-10 Kemori Dixon LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Justin Medlock LB Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ SMU recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Boston College recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 SMU 45 BC 13 SMU 2024 BC 28 SMU 38 SMU 2023 SMU 14 BC 23 BC ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10328