Baylor at Arizona State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Arizona State by 10.8 points, giving them a 73% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 58.3 combined points, with Arizona State at 34.4 and Baylor at 23.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Arizona State's margin lands between -11.6 and +33.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Arizona State -10.8 / Baylor +10.8 Moneyline: Arizona State -274 / Baylor +274 Win probability: Arizona State 73.3% / Baylor 26.7% Projected total: 58.3 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Arizona State: 1536.0, Baylor: 1448.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Arizona State Baylor ----------------- ------------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +29.4 +30.2 travel_fatigue +1.2 -0.6 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -17.6 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +3.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Baylor 23.6 -- Arizona State 34.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Arizona State margin -11.6 -0.8 +10.9 +22.5 +33.1 Total points 36.7 47.0 58.0 69.3 79.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ARIZONA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cutter Boley QB Passing yards 216.1 132-294 Pass attempts 32.6 24-40 Completions 21.1 15-27 Passing TDs 1.59 80% 1+, 47% 2+ Rushing yards 15.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Omarion Miller WR Receiving yards 76.9 41-120 Receptions 4.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.93 60% 1+, 24% 2+ Reed Harris WR Receiving yards 71.4 36-141 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Jalen Moss WR Receiving yards 52.7 17-105 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Kyson Brown RB Rushing yards 48.0 7-81 Carries 9.7 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Demarius Robinson RB Rushing yards 45.0 4-73 Carries 9.8 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 24.2 5-71 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Miller TE Receiving yards 20.8 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Khamari Anderson TE Receiving yards 14.1 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.17 15% 1+ Owen Long LB Tackles 9.6 6-14 Jessiah McGrew DB Tackles 5.8 4-9 Clayton Smith DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Emar'rion Winston DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ BAYLOR Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- DJ Lagway QB Passing yards 222.6 138-319 Pass attempts 29.9 21-43 Completions 17.5 12-23 Passing TDs 1.58 80% 1+, 47% 2+ Rushing yards 18.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Gavin Freeman WR Rushing yards 11.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 59.3 24-104 Receptions 5.2 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.59 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Caden Knighten RB Rushing yards 44.1 3-82 Carries 10.9 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 1.6 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Louis Brown IV WR Receiving yards 44.0 8-72 Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Michael Turner RB Rushing yards 43.8 3-73 Carries 10.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 13.5 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jadon Porter WR Receiving yards 36.0 0-66 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Matthew Klopfenstein TE Receiving yards 25.9 2-41 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Tony Livingston TE Receiving yards 23.9 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Kedrick Walker LB Tackles 6.1 3-10 Jacob Redding S Tackles 5.2 3-7 Ryan Davis DE Sacks 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Garrick Ponder DE Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Arizona State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Baylor recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 ASU 27 BAY 24 ASU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10329