San José State at Hawai'i NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 4, 2026 at 3:59 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Hawai'i by 13.1 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.2 combined points, with Hawai'i at 34.2 and San José State at 21.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Hawai'i's margin lands between -9.5 and +34.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Hawai'i -13.1 / San José State +13.1 Moneyline: Hawai'i -341 / San José State +341 Win probability: Hawai'i 77.3% / San José State 22.7% Projected total: 55.2 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Hawai'i: 1459.1, San José State: 1364.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Hawai'i San José State ----------------- ------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -33.9 -45.4 travel_fatigue +4.0 -5.0 coaching_change +4.7 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: San José State 21.3 -- Hawai'i 34.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Hawai'i margin -9.5 +1.2 +13.4 +24.5 +34.8 Total points 34.1 44.1 55.2 66.7 77.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: HAWAI'I Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Micah Alejado QB Passing yards 313.9 230-409 Pass attempts 35.4 26-46 Completions 22.3 16-31 Passing TDs 1.88 85% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 9.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Pofele Ashlock WR Receiving yards 73.4 38-116 Receptions 5.1 3-9 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Kainoa Carvalho WR Receiving yards 61.0 25-99 Receptions 4.2 2-9 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Audric Harris WR Receiving yards 48.8 13-104 Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Cam Barfield RB Rushing yards 38.2 -- Carries 8.8 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 14.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ DeVon Rice RB Rushing yards 36.0 -- Carries 9.6 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 11% 2+ Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Devon Tauaefa TE Receiving yards 16.2 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamih Otis LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Kona Moore DB Tackles 5.6 4-11 Noah Wily DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Luther McCoy DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ SAN JOSÉ STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Luke Weaver QB Passing yards 185.3 101-336 Pass attempts 26.5 18-46 Completions 16.3 10-29 Passing TDs 1.15 68% 1+, 32% 2+ Rushing yards 25.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Jabari Bates RB Rushing yards 55.8 15-106 Carries 11.4 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 14.3 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cooper Hoch WR Receiving yards 46.8 11-100 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Viliami Teu RB Rushing yards 30.6 -- Carries 7.3 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Isaiah Buxton CB Tackles 5.0 4-10 Caleb Womack CB Tackles 4.6 3-8 Etu Finau DL Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ Dylan Lee LB Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Hawai'i recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games San José State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 HAW 38 SJSU 45 SJSU 2023 SJSU 35 HAW 0 SJSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10330