Michigan at Minnesota NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Michigan by 8.3 points, giving them a 68% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 38.2 combined points, with Minnesota at 15.0 and Michigan at 23.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Minnesota's margin lands between -30.3 and +13.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Hogan Hansen (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Minnesota +8.3 / Michigan -8.3 Moneyline: Minnesota +217 / Michigan -217 Win probability: Minnesota 31.5% / Michigan 68.5% Projected total: 38.2 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Minnesota: 1486.7, Michigan: 1660.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Minnesota Michigan ----------------- --------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 -3.0 roster_talent +33.4 +96.3 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.5 coaching_change +9.5 -20.1 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +14.4 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +17.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Michigan 23.3 -- Minnesota 15.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Minnesota margin -30.3 -19.8 -8.4 +3.3 +13.9 Total points 16.7 27.0 38.3 49.5 59.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MINNESOTA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Drake Lindsey QB Passing yards 172.8 89-241 Pass attempts 30.6 22-40 Completions 19.9 14-26 Passing TDs 0.96 62% 1+, 25% 2+ Rushing yards -6.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Darius Taylor RB Rushing yards 53.3 12-103 Carries 12.0 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 21.4 2-42 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zion Steptoe WR Rushing yards 20.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 37.9 2-62 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah Jennings WR Receiving yards 36.1 0-62 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jalen Smith WR Receiving yards 34.1 -- Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ A.J. Turner RB Rushing yards 24.6 -- Carries 7.9 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Pierce Walsh TE Receiving yards 22.0 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaden Helms TE Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Maverick Baranowski LB Tackles 8.1 5-12 Andrew Marshall LB Tackles 6.8 4-9 Anthony Smith DL Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Karter Menz DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bryce Underwood QB Passing yards 180.1 96-259 Pass attempts 26.0 18-35 Completions 15.3 9-21 Passing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Rushing yards 39.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Jordan Marshall RB Rushing yards 83.3 42-150 Carries 13.1 8-20 Rushing TDs 1.08 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ JJ Buchanan WR Receiving yards 66.9 31-109 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Andrew Marsh WR Rushing yards 25.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 61.4 26-136 Receptions 4.3 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Bryson Kuzdzal RB Rushing yards 57.6 17-100 Carries 10.7 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 15.0 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zack Marshall TE Receiving yards 31.2 7-61 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Channing Goodwin WR Receiving yards 28.6 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Deakon Tonielli TE Receiving yards 24.4 0-42 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Bracy S Tackles 6.8 4-8 Troy Bowles LB Tackles 5.1 2-9 John Henry Daley DE Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Nate Marshall DE Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Minnesota recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Michigan recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 MINN 24 MICH 27 MICH 2023 MICH 52 MINN 10 MICH Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------ --- ---- ------ Hogan Hansen TE MICH Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10331