Auburn at Tennessee NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Tennessee by 19.0 points, giving them a 86% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 52.4 combined points, with Tennessee at 35.6 and Auburn at 16.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Tennessee's margin lands between -3.6 and +41.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Tennessee -19.0 / Auburn +19.0 Moneyline: Tennessee -593 / Auburn +593 Win probability: Tennessee 85.6% / Auburn 14.4% Projected total: 52.4 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Tennessee: 1630.7, Auburn: 1506.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Tennessee Auburn ----------------- --------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +69.0 travel_fatigue +3.5 +3.3 coaching_change +9.5 -20.1 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +19.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Auburn 16.9 -- Tennessee 35.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Tennessee margin -3.6 +6.8 +18.7 +30.5 +41.0 Total points 30.9 40.9 52.6 63.7 74.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TENNESSEE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryan Staub QB Passing yards 175.5 91-285 Pass attempts 23.7 15-40 Completions 13.8 8-23 Passing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Rushing yards 20.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Braylon Staley WR Receiving yards 56.5 21-96 Receptions 4.4 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Ethan Davis TE Receiving yards 56.3 32-102 Receptions 3.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ DeSean Bishop RB Rushing yards 56.2 15-86 Carries 14.4 9-19 Rushing TDs 1.05 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mike Matthews WR Receiving yards 55.3 20-88 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ DaSaahn Brame TE Receiving yards 38.6 14-67 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daune Morris RB Rushing yards 35.3 -- Carries 9.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Radarious Jackson WR Receiving yards 31.2 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Amare Campbell LB Tackles 7.3 4-11 DJ Burks DB Tackles 7.2 5-10 Jordan Norman DL Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Mariyon Dye DL Sacks 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ AUBURN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Byrum Brown QB Passing yards 281.3 197-331 Pass attempts 28.7 20-38 Completions 19.1 13-24 Passing TDs 2.06 87% 1+, 61% 2+ Rushing yards 80.9 41-121 Rushing TDs 1.21 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Keshaun Singleton WR Receiving yards 71.8 36-98 Receptions 5.0 3-6 Receiving TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Jeremiah Cobb RB Rushing yards 70.2 29-114 Carries 13.3 8-20 Rushing TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Receiving yards 17.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nykahi Davenport RB Rushing yards 59.5 19-99 Carries 10.4 5-15 Rushing TDs 0.87 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Receiving yards 14.8 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chas Nimrod WR Receiving yards 53.3 18-89 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Jeremiah Koger WR Receiving yards 50.7 15-80 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Jake Johnson TE Receiving yards 27.9 4-48 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Jonathan Echols TE Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Xavier Atkins LB Tackles 7.3 4-11 Sacks 0.88 58% 1+, 22% 2+ Kaleb Harris S Tackles 4.9 2-8 Cody Sigler DL Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Tennessee recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Auburn recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10332