Middle Tennessee at Kansas NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Kansas by 15.1 points, giving them a 80% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 58.1 combined points, with Kansas at 36.4 and Middle Tennessee at 21.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kansas's margin lands between -7.5 and +37.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kansas -15.1 / Middle Tennessee +15.1 Moneyline: Kansas -411 / Middle Tennessee +411 Win probability: Kansas 80.4% / Middle Tennessee 19.6% Projected total: 58.1 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kansas: 1423.3, Middle Tennessee: 1330.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kansas Middle Tennessee ----------------- ------ ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +7.4 -59.2 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.9 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +13.6 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +12.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Middle Tennessee 21.6 -- Kansas 36.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Kansas margin -7.5 +2.8 +14.8 +26.5 +37.0 Total points 36.5 46.8 58.1 69.1 79.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KANSAS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Chase Jenkins QB Passing yards 141.3 57-208 Pass attempts 19.4 10-26 Completions 12.8 6-18 Passing TDs 1.17 69% 1+, 33% 2+ Rushing yards 43.0 3-69 Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Nik McMillan WR Receiving yards 87.9 52-141 Receptions 5.2 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Dylan Edwards RB Rushing yards 52.8 12-126 Carries 10.9 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.42 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jalen Dupree RB Rushing yards 52.0 11-81 Carries 11.2 6-15 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nahzae Cox WR Receiving yards 43.9 8-77 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Cam Pickett WR Receiving yards 41.2 6-66 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Carson Bruhn TE Receiving yards 27.9 4-44 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jailen Butler TE Receiving yards 20.1 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Trey Lathan LB Tackles 7.0 4-10 Corey Gordon S Tackles 5.6 4-8 Jibreel Al-Amin LB Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Jalen Todd CB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ MIDDLE TENNESSEE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Roman Gagliano QB Passing yards 231.4 147-348 Pass attempts 32.7 24-46 Completions 19.5 14-28 Passing TDs 1.96 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 40.8 1-76 Rushing TDs 0.44 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Antonio Martin RB Rushing yards 55.7 15-100 Carries 7.5 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.18 17% 1+ DJ Taylor RB Rushing yards 54.5 14-92 Carries 5.8 0-7 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 2.0 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Cam'ron Lacy WR Rushing yards 11.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 54.0 18-96 Receptions 4.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Landon Collins WR Receiving yards 47.4 12-76 Receptions 4.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ AJ Jones WR Receiving yards 35.2 -- Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.79 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Tayvion Galloway TE Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Korey Smith LB Tackles 5.5 2-10 Jackson Lowe CB Tackles 4.2 2-6 Reggie Johnson LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Christofer Noble S Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kansas recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Middle Tennessee recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10333