UTEP at New Mexico NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors New Mexico by 25.4 points, giving them a 91% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 50.6 combined points, with New Mexico at 37.9 and UTEP at 12.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, New Mexico's margin lands between +3.0 and +47.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: New Mexico -25.4 / UTEP +25.4 Moneyline: New Mexico -1073 / UTEP +1073 Win probability: New Mexico 91.5% / UTEP 8.5% Projected total: 50.6 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- New Mexico: 1578.8, UTEP: 1284.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor New Mexico UTEP ----------------- ---------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -61.1 -50.8 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.4 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +14.2 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +7.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UTEP 12.7 -- New Mexico 37.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ----- ----- ----- ----- New Mexico margin +3.0 +13.4 +25.1 +36.8 +47.3 Total points 29.2 39.3 50.6 62.0 72.1 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEW MEXICO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jack Layne QB Passing yards 173.2 89-258 Pass attempts 23.1 14-27 Completions 14.4 8-18 Passing TDs 0.81 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Rushing yards 20.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Kiefer Sibley RB Rushing yards 53.0 12-85 Carries 7.9 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 24.2 5-51 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Scottre Humphrey RB Rushing yards 45.8 5-79 Carries 9.3 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Receiving yards 13.3 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Troy Omeire WR Receiving yards 35.4 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Cade Keith TE Receiving yards 27.9 4-55 Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Shawn Miller WR Receiving yards 27.3 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Simon Mapa TE Receiving yards 17.6 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Zhaiel Smith WR Receiving yards 14.2 -- Receptions 1.1 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaxton Eck LB Tackles 8.0 5-12 Mercury Swaim LB Tackles 6.2 4-9 Brett Karhu DE Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Darren Agu DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ UTEP Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lamar Sperling RB Rushing yards 40.0 -- Carries 6.8 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 12.0 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Judah Ezinwa TE Receiving yards 39.1 15-57 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylan Brown WR Receiving yards 26.9 -- Receptions 2.1 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elijah McCoy RB Rushing yards 17.2 -- Carries 4.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marcus Torres WR Receiving yards 16.6 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Royal Capell WR Receiving yards 13.8 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayden Wilson LB Tackles 7.4 4-12 Xavier Smith S Tackles 5.5 3-8 Ekow Taylor DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Vashon Brunswick II LB Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ New Mexico recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games UTEP recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10334