UTSA at Rice NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors UTSA by 13.6 points, giving them a 78% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 78.0 combined points, with Rice at 32.3 and UTSA at 46.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Rice's margin lands between -35.9 and +8.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Rice +13.6 / UTSA -13.6 Moneyline: Rice +356 / UTSA -356 Win probability: Rice 21.9% / UTSA 78.0% Projected total: 78.0 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Rice: 1347.8, UTSA: 1582.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Rice UTSA ----------------- ----- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -48.4 -9.5 travel_fatigue +1.1 +3.5 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +10.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UTSA 46.0 -- Rice 32.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Rice margin -35.9 -25.4 -13.9 -2.2 +8.8 Total points 57.0 67.1 78.1 89.3 99.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: RICE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Quinton Jackson RB Rushing yards 58.5 18-119 Carries 12.0 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ D'Andre Hardeman Jr. RB Rushing yards 37.2 -- Carries 8.8 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Braylen Walker WR Receiving yards 29.8 -- Receptions 3.2 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Payton Matthews WR Receiving yards 29.7 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ James Falk TE Receiving yards 17.9 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Stone Combs LB Tackles 5.6 2-7 AJ Brown DE Tackles 5.4 4-8 Daveon Hook S Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Chibby Nwajuaku DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ UTSA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Owen McCown QB Passing yards 269.2 185-372 Pass attempts 31.3 22-40 Completions 21.0 15-28 Passing TDs 3.12 96% 1+, 82% 2+ Rushing yards 6.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Will Henderson III RB Rushing yards 70.7 30-131 Carries 11.4 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 19.3 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.35 29% 1+ AJ Wilson Jr. WR Receiving yards 53.3 18-86 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ David Amador II WR Rushing yards 5.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 51.3 16-92 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Brandon High Jr. RB Rushing yards 43.8 3-65 Carries 8.6 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Mekhi Anderson WR Receiving yards 41.6 6-79 Receptions 2.8 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Brandon Young Jr. TE Receiving yards 11.6 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.91 60% 1+, 23% 2+ Brandon Tucker LB Tackles 4.9 2-9 Zach Morris CB Tackles 3.8 2-4 James Walley Jr. LB Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Elijah Baldwin LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Rice recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games UTSA recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 RICE 13 UTSA 61 UTSA 2024 UTSA 27 RICE 29 RICE 2023 RICE 14 UTSA 34 UTSA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10335