Toledo at Ball State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Toledo by 8.1 points, giving them a 68% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 42.5 combined points, with Ball State at 17.4 and Toledo at 25.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Ball State's margin lands between -30.2 and +13.9 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Ball State +8.1 / Toledo -8.1 Moneyline: Ball State +213 / Toledo -213 Win probability: Ball State 31.9% / Toledo 68.1% Projected total: 42.5 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Ball State: 1307.7, Toledo: 1512.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Ball State Toledo ----------------- ---------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -63.7 -68.2 travel_fatigue +3.6 +3.5 coaching_change +9.5 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +13.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Toledo 25.5 -- Ball State 17.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Ball State margin -30.2 -19.7 -8.1 +3.5 +13.9 Total points 21.5 31.4 42.8 54.1 64.4 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BALL STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jalen Bonds RB Rushing yards 34.9 -- Carries 10.2 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Donovan Hamilton WR Receiving yards 33.0 -- Receptions 3.2 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jabari Smith Jr. WR Receiving yards 22.8 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Jamarion McDougle WR Receiving yards 20.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ TJ Horton RB Rushing yards 20.6 -- Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 10.6 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Derek Fields DB Tackles 4.3 2-6 Willizhuan Yates DB Tackles 4.1 2-6 Jared Badie LB Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Ameir Glenn DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ TOLEDO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- John Alan Richter QB Passing yards 184.7 100-311 Pass attempts 22.0 14-33 Completions 12.8 6-19 Passing TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 7.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Connor Walendzak RB Rushing yards 42.7 2-72 Carries 7.3 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 21.2 2-32 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Terrell Crosby Jr. WR Receiving yards 35.0 -- Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Jacob Newell TE Receiving yards 7.1 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Isaac Zay LB Tackles 5.5 2-13 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Armorion Smith S Tackles 4.2 2-7 Lucas Lambert-Pipkin DT Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Ball State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Toledo recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 BALL 9 TOL 38 TOL 2023 TOL 13 BALL 6 TOL ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10336