Western Michigan at Buffalo NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Western Michigan by 7.1 points, giving them a 66% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 40.8 combined points, with Buffalo at 17.0 and Western Michigan at 23.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Buffalo's margin lands between -29.0 and +15.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Buffalo +7.1 / Western Michigan -7.1 Moneyline: Buffalo +194 / Western Michigan -194 Win probability: Buffalo 34.1% / Western Michigan 66.0% Projected total: 40.8 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Buffalo: 1373.6, Western Michigan: 1570.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Buffalo Western Michigan ----------------- ------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -72.2 -58.8 travel_fatigue +0.4 +3.2 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +5.2 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Western Michigan 23.8 -- Buffalo 17.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Buffalo margin -29.0 -18.7 -6.7 +5.1 +15.3 Total points 19.7 29.4 40.6 51.9 62.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: BUFFALO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Chance Morrow WR Receiving yards 53.8 18-132 Receptions 4.2 2-10 Receiving TDs 0.84 57% 1+, 21% 2+ Jasaiah Gathings WR Receiving yards 41.8 6-69 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Terrance Shelton Jr. RB Rushing yards 39.4 -- Carries 9.2 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Receiving yards 13.0 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Patrick Clacks III WR Receiving yards 18.5 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Messiah Burch RB Rushing yards 16.4 -- Carries 7.2 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 10.0 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Miles Greer S Tackles 6.2 4-10 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ SaVeon Brown LB Tackles 5.7 3-9 Cornell Evans DT Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ WESTERN MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Broc Lowry QB Passing yards 127.2 43-170 Pass attempts 20.9 12-28 Completions 13.1 7-18 Passing TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Rushing yards 58.3 18-87 Rushing TDs 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Jalen Buckley RB Rushing yards 81.8 41-148 Carries 13.2 8-19 Rushing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Aveion Chenault WR Rushing yards 19.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 31.2 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 12% 1+ Baylin Brooks WR Receiving yards 27.0 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ofa Mataele RB Rushing yards 24.7 -- Carries 5.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Receiving yards 6.8 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jarvarius Sims CB Tackles 4.9 3-8 Micah Davis S Tackles 4.8 2-7 DeJuan Echoles Jr. DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Amarian Louis CB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Buffalo recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Western Michigan recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 WMU 48 BUF 41 WMU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10337