UCF at Houston NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Houston by 12.5 points, giving them a 76% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.1 combined points, with Houston at 30.0 and UCF at 17.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Houston's margin lands between -9.5 and +35.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Houston -12.5 / UCF +12.5 Moneyline: Houston -323 / UCF +323 Win probability: Houston 76.4% / UCF 23.6% Projected total: 47.1 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Houston: 1551.7, UCF: 1409.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Houston UCF ----------------- ------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +14.1 +0.1 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.6 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -4.2 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +2.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UCF 17.2 -- Houston 30.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Houston margin -9.5 +1.0 +12.7 +24.8 +35.1 Total points 25.5 35.8 47.2 58.7 68.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: HOUSTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Conner Weigman QB Passing yards 178.6 94-227 Pass attempts 29.7 21-35 Completions 19.7 14-25 Passing TDs 1.87 84% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 45.8 6-89 Rushing TDs 0.73 52% 1+, 16% 2+ Amare Thomas WR Rushing yards 4.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 54.5 19-81 Receptions 5.5 4-8 Receiving TDs 1.02 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Patrick Overmyer TE Receiving yards 54.2 30-90 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Makhi Hughes RB Rushing yards 49.7 9-92 Carries 10.5 5-18 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Trent Walker WR Receiving yards 44.7 9-93 Receptions 4.7 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Stephon Johnson WR Receiving yards 39.8 4-74 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ DJ Butler RB Rushing yards 38.8 -- Carries 8.9 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 11.3 -- Receptions 2.0 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Myles Rowser DB Tackles 5.9 4-8 Kentrell Webb DB Tackles 5.7 4-9 Brandon Mack II LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Javion White DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ UCF Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alonza Barnett III QB Passing yards 258.4 174-351 Pass attempts 28.3 20-39 Completions 16.5 10-22 Passing TDs 1.77 83% 1+, 53% 2+ Rushing yards 46.4 7-89 Rushing TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Dylan Wade TE Receiving yards 50.9 26-101 Receptions 3.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Duane Thomas Jr. WR Rushing yards 10.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.4 7-69 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jonathan Bibbs WR Rushing yards 13.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.8 6-73 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Waden Charles WR Receiving yards 39.0 3-64 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Agyeman Addae RB Rushing yards 35.1 -- Carries 6.6 1-8 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Duke Watson RB Rushing yards 33.4 -- Carries 9.5 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 7.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dylan Burk TE Receiving yards 24.2 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lewis Carter LB Tackles 8.4 6-12 Cole Kozlowski LB Tackles 7.4 4-11 Horace Lockett DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Jahleel Culbreath LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Houston recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games UCF recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 HOU 30 UCF 27 HOU 2023 HOU 13 UCF 27 UCF ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10338