Purdue at Illinois NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Illinois by 19.8 points, giving them a 86% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.9 combined points, with Illinois at 33.8 and Purdue at 14.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Illinois's margin lands between -2.2 and +41.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Illinois -19.8 / Purdue +19.8 Moneyline: Illinois -636 / Purdue +636 Win probability: Illinois 86.4% / Purdue 13.6% Projected total: 47.9 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Illinois: 1566.0, Purdue: 1320.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Illinois Purdue ----------------- -------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +14.1 +15.5 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.8 coaching_change +7.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +14.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Purdue 14.1 -- Illinois 33.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Illinois margin -2.2 +7.8 +19.5 +31.5 +41.7 Total points 26.2 36.7 48.0 59.2 69.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: ILLINOIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Katin Houser QB Passing yards 265.2 181-317 Pass attempts 30.8 22-39 Completions 20.0 14-24 Passing TDs 1.86 84% 1+, 56% 2+ Rushing yards 25.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Alex Perry WR Receiving yards 83.6 48-127 Receptions 4.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Ca'Lil Valentine RB Rushing yards 74.1 33-109 Carries 11.6 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 18.8 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayshon Platt WR Receiving yards 66.0 30-120 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Aidan Laughery RB Rushing yards 61.7 21-88 Carries 9.7 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Collin Dixon WR Receiving yards 61.6 26-126 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Kaden Feagin TE Receiving yards 24.9 1-43 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Matthew Bailey DB Tackles 6.7 4-9 Will Holmes LB Tackles 5.4 2-9 Darrell Prater DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Joe Barna DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ PURDUE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ryan Browne QB Passing yards 182.7 98-304 Pass attempts 27.7 19-44 Completions 16.9 10-28 Passing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Rushing yards 17.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Asaad Waseem WR Receiving yards 57.2 22-91 Receptions 5.4 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Fame Ijeboi RB Rushing yards 49.8 9-91 Carries 11.2 6-19 Rushing TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 16.0 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Corey Smith WR Receiving yards 47.3 12-74 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Xavier Townsend WR Rushing yards 5.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 41.2 6-73 Receptions 3.3 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Antonio Harris RB Rushing yards 40.9 0-65 Carries 9.5 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Receiving yards 14.9 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ George Burhenn TE Receiving yards 22.1 -- Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kylan Fox TE Receiving yards 19.6 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Charles Correa LB Tackles 6.4 4-11 John Slaughter DB Tackles 5.4 3-8 Hudson Miller LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Trey Smith DE Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Illinois recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Purdue recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 ILL 43 PUR 27 ILL 2024 PUR 49 ILL 50 ILL 2023 ILL 19 PUR 44 PUR ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10339