UL Monroe at South Alabama NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors South Alabama by 16.6 points, giving them a 82% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.8 combined points, with South Alabama at 36.3 and UL Monroe at 19.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, South Alabama's margin lands between -5.5 and +39.1 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: South Alabama -16.6 / UL Monroe +16.6 Moneyline: South Alabama -471 / UL Monroe +471 Win probability: South Alabama 82.5% / UL Monroe 17.5% Projected total: 55.8 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- South Alabama: 1407.8, UL Monroe: 1239.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor South Alabama UL Monroe ----------------- ------------- --------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -58.1 -73.5 travel_fatigue +3.6 +3.4 coaching_change +9.5 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +2.8 -- consecutive_road -- -15.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: UL Monroe 19.8 -- South Alabama 36.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- South Alabama margin -5.5 +5.0 +16.3 +28.1 +39.1 Total points 34.9 45.0 55.9 67.3 77.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SOUTH ALABAMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bishop Davenport QB Passing yards 197.9 114-284 Pass attempts 25.4 16-32 Completions 17.4 11-22 Passing TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Rushing yards 34.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.98 62% 1+, 26% 2+ Keenan Phillips RB Rushing yards 54.4 14-66 Carries 12.0 6-17 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 12.1 -- Receptions 1.9 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brendan Jenkins WR Receiving yards 53.2 18-107 Receptions 3.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.50 40% 1+, 9% 2+ PJ Martin RB Rushing yards 47.0 6-72 Carries 9.7 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Receiving yards 20.7 1-42 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Eager WR Receiving yards 41.2 6-76 Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Micah Woods WR Receiving yards 24.4 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Rod Gibbs TE Receiving yards 10.1 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.18 17% 1+ Tirrell Johnson LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Caleb Dozier LB Tackles 5.3 2-9 Emmanuel Waller DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Stephen Johnson DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ UL MONROE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Aidan Armenta QB Passing yards 166.7 82-242 Pass attempts 25.5 17-32 Completions 15.3 9-20 Passing TDs 0.95 61% 1+, 25% 2+ Rushing yards 4.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Nic Trujillo WR Receiving yards 57.3 22-103 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ JP Coulter WR Receiving yards 33.2 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brandon Buckhaulter WR Receiving yards 24.0 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Bryce Anderson TE Receiving yards 11.8 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Noah Flemmings LB Tackles 7.0 4-10 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Jabari Tiller DB Tackles 5.2 3-8 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ South Alabama recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games UL Monroe recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 USA 26 ULM 14 USA 2024 ULM 17 USA 46 USA 2023 USA 55 ULM 7 USA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10340