Bowling Green at Miami (OH) NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Miami (OH) by 16.3 points, giving them a 82% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 39.4 combined points, with Miami (OH) at 27.8 and Bowling Green at 11.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Miami (OH)'s margin lands between -5.8 and +38.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Miami (OH) -16.3 / Bowling Green +16.3 Moneyline: Miami (OH) -458 / Bowling Green +458 Win probability: Miami (OH) 82.1% / Bowling Green 17.9% Projected total: 39.4 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Miami (OH): 1451.3, Bowling Green: 1330.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Miami (OH) Bowling Green ----------------- ---------- ------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -29.8 -61.0 travel_fatigue +3.2 +2.1 coaching_change +9.5 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +9.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Bowling Green 11.5 -- Miami (OH) 27.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Miami (OH) margin -5.8 +4.7 +16.2 +27.9 +38.6 Total points 18.1 28.0 39.1 50.7 60.7 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MIAMI (OH) Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Thomas Gotkowski QB Passing yards 182.4 98-267 Pass attempts 23.6 15-27 Completions 12.8 6-17 Passing TDs 1.04 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 26.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Lazaro Rogers RB Rushing yards 44.9 4-84 Carries 8.0 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ D'Shawntae Jones RB Rushing yards 35.8 -- Carries 7.0 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Braylon Isom WR Receiving yards 32.0 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.52 40% 1+, 10% 2+ Christian Ross TE Receiving yards 30.6 6-58 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Lynel Billups-Williams WR Receiving yards 29.2 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Keith Reynolds WR Rushing yards 24.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 25.2 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ CJ Young LB Tackles 8.5 6-11 Blayne Myrick LB Tackles 7.3 4-11 Bai Jobe DL Sacks 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ James Schott DL Sacks 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ BOWLING GREEN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Hunter Najm QB Passing yards 143.2 59-203 Pass attempts 20.3 12-29 Completions 10.4 4-14 Passing TDs 1.31 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 14.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Austyn Dendy RB Rushing yards 57.6 17-89 Carries 14.5 9-20 Rushing TDs 0.66 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 18.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Brennan Ridley WR Receiving yards 42.7 7-91 Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Nakai Amachree RB Rushing yards 38.3 -- Carries 10.1 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Winn Sharp WR Receiving yards 19.1 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dorian Pringle LB Tackles 7.4 4-9 Kal-El Pascal S Tackles 6.8 4-10 Myles Bradley DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Eriq George DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Miami (OH) recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Bowling Green recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 M-OH 28 BGSU 12 M-OH 2023 BGSU 0 M-OH 27 M-OH ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10341