Arkansas State at Louisiana NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Louisiana by 5.2 points, giving them a 62% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 57.3 combined points, with Louisiana at 31.4 and Arkansas State at 26.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Louisiana's margin lands between -17.3 and +27.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Louisiana -5.2 / Arkansas State +5.2 Moneyline: Louisiana -163 / Arkansas State +163 Win probability: Louisiana 62.0% / Arkansas State 38.0% Projected total: 57.3 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Louisiana: 1449.8, Arkansas State: 1445.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Louisiana Arkansas State ----------------- --------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -47.7 -38.7 travel_fatigue -0.7 +2.9 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Arkansas State 26.0 -- Louisiana 31.4 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Louisiana margin -17.3 -6.3 +5.6 +17.2 +27.6 Total points 35.7 46.1 57.4 68.8 79.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LOUISIANA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Lunch Winfield QB Passing yards 190.3 106-251 Pass attempts 25.2 16-32 Completions 15.8 10-20 Passing TDs 1.04 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 62.1 22-102 Rushing TDs 1.04 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Shelton Sampson Jr. WR Receiving yards 51.5 16-85 Receptions 3.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Caden Jensen TE Receiving yards 29.0 5-53 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Brock Chappell TE Receiving yards 25.7 1-45 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Landon Strother WR Receiving yards 18.3 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Steven Blanco RB Rushing yards 14.0 -- Carries 4.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Jaydon Johnson WR Receiving yards 12.2 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maurion Eleam S Tackles 5.7 4-7 Collin Jacob S Tackles 5.6 3-11 Sacks 0.06 6% 1+ Maxie Baudoin IV DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ ARKANSAS STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kenyon Clay RB Rushing yards 77.9 37-133 Carries 11.4 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 37.6 18-82 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Devin Spencer RB Rushing yards 77.5 37-137 Carries 9.9 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.35 29% 1+ Receiving yards 24.0 5-44 Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chauncy Cobb WR Receiving yards 61.6 26-101 Receptions 4.9 3-8 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Hunter Summers WR Receiving yards 51.4 16-82 Receptions 3.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Jaylen Bonelli WR Receiving yards 31.3 -- Receptions 2.8 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Jabari Bush TE Receiving yards 25.4 1-41 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ AG McGhee S Tackles 6.5 4-9 Brandon Greil S Tackles 5.4 3-9 Shakai Woods DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Sultan Badmus DE Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Louisiana recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Arkansas State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 UL 34 ARST 30 UL 2024 ARST 19 UL 55 UL 2023 UL 17 ARST 37 ARST ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10342