Washington at USC NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors USC by 9.9 points, giving them a 72% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.1 combined points, with USC at 28.0 and Washington at 18.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, USC's margin lands between -12.0 and +31.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: USC -9.9 / Washington +9.9 Moneyline: USC -252 / Washington +252 Win probability: USC 71.6% / Washington 28.4% Projected total: 46.1 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- USC: 1688.6, Washington: 1660.0 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor USC Washington ----------------- ----- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +66.8 +46.6 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.1 coaching_change +4.7 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -6.6 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Washington 18.1 -- USC 28.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- USC margin -12.0 -1.3 +9.7 +21.7 +31.7 Total points 24.9 35.0 46.2 57.2 67.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: USC Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jayden Maiava QB Passing yards 254.6 170-286 Pass attempts 30.9 22-36 Completions 21.6 16-24 Passing TDs 2.16 88% 1+, 64% 2+ Rushing yards 15.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Trent Mosley WR Receiving yards 62.5 27-115 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 1.17 69% 1+, 33% 2+ Tanook Hines WR Receiving yards 54.7 19-118 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Kayden Dixon-Wyatt WR Receiving yards 54.0 18-96 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 12% 2+ King Miller RB Rushing yards 46.4 6-73 Carries 14.7 9-18 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 11.6 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Waymond Jordan RB Rushing yards 45.0 4-80 Carries 12.6 7-17 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 10.0 -- Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mark Bowman TE Receiving yards 37.0 13-79 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Carson Tabaracci TE Receiving yards 18.0 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Desman Stephens II LB Tackles 6.7 4-12 Alex Graham CB Tackles 4.9 3-8 Jadyn Ramos DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jide Abasiri DT Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ WASHINGTON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Demond Williams Jr. QB Passing yards 196.8 113-253 Pass attempts 29.9 21-37 Completions 19.5 14-25 Passing TDs 1.95 86% 1+, 58% 2+ Rushing yards 38.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Jordan Washington RB Rushing yards 49.5 9-92 Carries 5.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Jayden Limar RB Rushing yards 48.0 7-82 Carries 9.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Receiving yards 17.1 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Christian Moss WR Receiving yards 46.2 11-80 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Rashid Williams WR Receiving yards 41.6 6-72 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Dezmen Roebuck WR Receiving yards 37.5 2-65 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Decker DeGraaf TE Receiving yards 34.0 10-64 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Alex McLaughlin S Tackles 7.0 4-10 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Xe'ree Alexander LB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Taariq Al-Uqdah LB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ USC recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Washington recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 USC 21 WASH 26 WASH 2023 WASH 52 USC 42 WASH ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10343