Michigan State at Wisconsin NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Wisconsin by 7.7 points, giving them a 67% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 30.6 combined points, with Wisconsin at 19.0 and Michigan State at 11.6. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Wisconsin's margin lands between -14.8 and +29.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Wisconsin -7.7 / Michigan State +7.7 Moneyline: Wisconsin -205 / Michigan State +205 Win probability: Wisconsin 67.2% / Michigan State 32.8% Projected total: 30.6 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Wisconsin: 1464.8, Michigan State: 1471.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Wisconsin Michigan State ----------------- --------- -------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +56.3 +5.8 travel_fatigue +3.4 +3.2 coaching_change +9.5 -20.1 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +5.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Michigan State 11.6 -- Wisconsin 19.0 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Wisconsin margin -14.8 -4.4 +7.3 +19.0 +29.7 Total points 8.8 19.5 30.8 41.8 52.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WISCONSIN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Colton Joseph QB Passing yards 209.6 125-282 Pass attempts 25.5 17-31 Completions 15.1 9-20 Passing TDs 1.40 75% 1+, 41% 2+ Rushing yards 55.7 16-120 Rushing TDs 1.12 67% 1+, 31% 2+ Abu Sama III RB Rushing yards 76.7 36-142 Carries 12.0 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 12.8 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Darrion Dupree RB Rushing yards 58.3 18-114 Carries 9.9 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.31 27% 1+ Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Shamar Rigby WR Receiving yards 43.8 8-74 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Malachi Coleman WR Receiving yards 43.1 8-82 Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ Jacob Harris TE Receiving yards 26.8 2-44 Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Grant Stec TE Receiving yards 24.1 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chris Brooks Jr. WR Receiving yards 23.2 -- Receptions 1.9 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Mason Posa LB Tackles 7.8 5-13 Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Cooper Catalano LB Tackles 7.2 4-13 Sebastian Cheeks LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ MICHIGAN STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Alessio Milivojevic QB Passing yards 198.3 114-306 Pass attempts 27.1 18-42 Completions 17.6 12-28 Passing TDs 1.43 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 1.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cam Edwards RB Rushing yards 64.1 23-102 Carries 14.3 9-20 Rushing TDs 1.24 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Rodney Bullard Jr. WR Receiving yards 61.6 26-111 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.70 50% 1+, 16% 2+ Marvis Parrish RB Rushing yards 42.7 2-68 Carries 9.0 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Receiving yards 9.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Chrishon McCray WR Receiving yards 40.6 5-68 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.26 23% 1+ KK Smith WR Receiving yards 31.6 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Jayden Savoury TE Receiving yards 22.2 -- Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Hall LB Tackles 6.6 4-9 Dion Crawford LB Tackles 6.6 4-9 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Eli Coenen DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Wisconsin recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Michigan State recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10344