Maryland at Nebraska NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Nebraska by 12.9 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 57.4 combined points, with Nebraska at 35.2 and Maryland at 22.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Nebraska's margin lands between -9.2 and +35.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Nebraska -12.9 / Maryland +12.9 Moneyline: Nebraska -333 / Maryland +333 Win probability: Nebraska 76.9% / Maryland 23.1% Projected total: 57.4 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Nebraska: 1571.0, Maryland: 1471.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Nebraska Maryland ----------------- -------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +51.0 +28.1 travel_fatigue +4.0 +0.3 coaching_change +7.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Maryland 22.2 -- Nebraska 35.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Nebraska margin -9.2 +1.4 +12.9 +24.5 +35.2 Total points 35.8 46.1 57.3 68.8 79.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NEBRASKA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Anthony Colandrea QB Passing yards 227.8 144-260 Pass attempts 29.6 21-38 Completions 18.7 12-22 Passing TDs 2.22 89% 1+, 65% 2+ Rushing yards 30.3 -- Rushing TDs 1.04 64% 1+, 28% 2+ Mekhi Nelson RB Rushing yards 52.3 12-93 Carries 8.1 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Receiving yards 31.0 12-66 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Kwazi Gilmer WR Receiving yards 42.9 7-66 Receptions 4.2 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.94 61% 1+, 24% 2+ Jacory Barney Jr. WR Rushing yards 10.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.0 6-83 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Isaiah Mozee RB Rushing yards 40.6 -- Carries 6.7 1-10 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 27.6 8-62 Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nyziah Hunter WR Receiving yards 33.5 -- Receptions 3.2 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Luke Lindenmeyer TE Receiving yards 21.8 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Dexter Foster LB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Owen Chambliss LB Tackles 6.2 4-10 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Riley Van Poppel DT Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ MARYLAND Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Malik Washington QB Passing yards 165.1 81-242 Pass attempts 37.0 28-48 Completions 22.2 16-31 Passing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 24.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.09 8% 1+ DeJuan Williams RB Rushing yards 47.2 6-65 Carries 10.6 5-14 Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Receiving yards 31.8 12-65 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Harry Dalton III RB Rushing yards 38.6 -- Carries 9.4 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding WR Receiving yards 37.8 2-71 Receptions 4.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Chris Durr Jr. WR Receiving yards 31.8 -- Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Kaleb Webb WR Receiving yards 28.8 -- Receptions 3.1 1-6 Receiving TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Dorian Fleming TE Receiving yards 27.8 4-42 Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Preston Howard TE Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 2.2 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Daniel Wingate LB Tackles 7.1 4-9 Lavain Scruggs DB Tackles 6.1 4-9 Zahir Mathis DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Sidney Stewart DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Nebraska recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Maryland recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 NEB 34 MD 31 NEB 2023 MD 13 NEB 10 MD ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10345