Temple at South Florida NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors South Florida by 19.5 points, giving them a 86% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 63.6 combined points, with South Florida at 41.5 and Temple at 22.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, South Florida's margin lands between -3.0 and +42.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: South Florida -19.5 / Temple +19.5 Moneyline: South Florida -620 / Temple +620 Win probability: South Florida 86.1% / Temple 13.9% Projected total: 63.6 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- South Florida: 1615.7, Temple: 1359.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor South Florida Temple ----------------- ------------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +14.1 -24.1 travel_fatigue +0.9 +1.2 coaching_change -20.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +4.1 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +11.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Temple 22.0 -- South Florida 41.5 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- South Florida margin -3.0 +7.7 +19.4 +31.4 +42.2 Total points 42.0 52.2 63.6 74.8 84.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SOUTH FLORIDA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Michael Van Buren Jr. QB Passing yards 186.7 102-286 Pass attempts 25.9 17-39 Completions 15.9 10-24 Passing TDs 1.28 72% 1+, 37% 2+ Rushing yards 24.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Mudia Reuben WR Receiving yards 55.9 20-117 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Kenny Odom WR Rushing yards 17.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 48.0 12-83 Receptions 4.7 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Bryson Rodgers WR Receiving yards 43.6 8-65 Receptions 3.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Alvon Isaac RB Rushing yards 38.7 -- Carries 8.3 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 20.5 1-40 Receptions 2.3 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Wyatt Sullivan TE Receiving yards 26.1 2-37 Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 6% 2+ Tavin Ward S Tackles 6.1 4-10 Ayden Jackson DB Tackles 6.0 4-9 Shamar Meikle LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ MarShon Oxley LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ TEMPLE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Colin Chase WR Rushing yards 11.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.8 7-60 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ JoJo Bermudez WR Rushing yards 3.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.3 5-62 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Peter Clarke TE Receiving yards 35.6 11-57 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Hunter Smith RB Rushing yards 31.7 -- Carries 7.6 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Keveun Mason RB Rushing yards 31.6 -- Carries 8.1 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Receiving yards 10.3 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ryder Kusch TE Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Curly Ordonez LB Tackles 7.1 4-12 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Avery Powell S Tackles 4.8 2-8 JaMair Diaz LB Sacks 0.20 18% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ South Florida recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Temple recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 TEM 23 USF 27 USF ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10346