Texas Tech at Colorado NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Texas Tech by 17.5 points, giving them a 84% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 51.7 combined points, with Colorado at 17.1 and Texas Tech at 34.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Colorado's margin lands between -39.3 and +4.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Colorado +17.5 / Texas Tech -17.5 Moneyline: Colorado +516 / Texas Tech -516 Win probability: Colorado 16.2% / Texas Tech 83.8% Projected total: 51.7 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Colorado: 1416.8, Texas Tech: 1715.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Colorado Texas Tech ----------------- -------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +35.1 +56.5 travel_fatigue +0.3 +1.1 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +10.7 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Texas Tech 34.4 -- Colorado 17.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Colorado margin -39.3 -29.3 -17.3 -5.4 +4.3 Total points 30.1 40.1 51.4 62.8 73.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: COLORADO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Julian Lewis QB Passing yards 173.8 90-285 Pass attempts 27.3 18-42 Completions 15.9 10-25 Passing TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Rushing yards 2.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Danny Scudero WR Receiving yards 62.7 27-140 Receptions 5.4 4-9 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Kam Perry WR Receiving yards 54.0 18-90 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Joseph Williams WR Receiving yards 47.9 12-85 Receptions 3.9 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.23 21% 1+ Micah Welch RB Rushing yards 23.8 -- Carries 9.8 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Receiving yards 6.7 -- Receptions 2.0 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DeKalon Taylor RB Rushing yards 22.3 -- Carries 8.2 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.7 -- Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.33 28% 1+ Zach Atkins TE Receiving yards 19.8 -- Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gideon ESPN Lampron LB Tackles 9.5 6-12 Naeten Mitchell DB Tackles 6.6 4-8 Santana Hopper DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Vili Taufatofua DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ TEXAS TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Tommy Castellanos QB Passing yards 195.8 112-279 Pass attempts 26.6 18-40 Completions 15.4 10-22 Passing TDs 1.23 71% 1+, 35% 2+ Rushing yards 33.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ J'Koby Williams RB Rushing yards 73.2 32-120 Carries 12.0 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Receiving yards 24.7 5-48 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Cameron Dickey RB Rushing yards 67.9 27-106 Carries 12.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.82 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Receiving yards 18.1 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Kenny Johnson WR Receiving yards 50.5 15-85 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Donte Lee Jr. WR Receiving yards 46.2 11-74 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Coy Eakin WR Receiving yards 39.1 3-66 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Terrance Carter Jr. TE Receiving yards 38.7 14-70 Receptions 3.8 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.06 6% 1+ Jett Carpenter TE Receiving yards 31.6 7-58 Receptions 3.0 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Austin Romaine LB Tackles 6.9 4-10 Ben Roberts LB Tackles 6.5 4-11 Trey White LB Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ Jamond Mathis LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Colorado recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Texas Tech recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2024 COLO 41 TTU 27 COLO ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10347