Alabama at Mississippi State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Alabama by 11.9 points, giving them a 75% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 61.4 combined points, with Mississippi State at 24.6 and Alabama at 36.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Mississippi State's margin lands between -34.2 and +10.5 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Michael Carroll (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Mississippi State +11.9 / Alabama -11.9 Moneyline: Mississippi State +303 / Alabama -303 Win probability: Mississippi State 24.8% / Alabama 75.2% Projected total: 61.4 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Mississippi State: 1511.0, Alabama: 1735.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Mississippi State Alabama ----------------- ----------------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 -3.0 roster_talent +58.5 +100.0 travel_fatigue +1.5 +2.8 coaching_change +7.1 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +6.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Alabama 36.5 -- Mississippi State 24.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------------ ----- ----- ----- ---- ----- Mississippi State margin -34.2 -23.6 -12.0 -0.2 +10.5 Total points 39.7 49.9 61.2 72.3 82.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MISSISSIPPI STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- AJ Swann QB Passing yards 176.3 92-300 Pass attempts 30.5 22-46 Completions 18.5 12-30 Passing TDs 1.25 72% 1+, 36% 2+ Rushing yards 4.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Anthony Evans III WR Rushing yards 10.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 62.9 27-91 Receptions 5.4 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Fluff Bothwell RB Rushing yards 39.1 -- Carries 11.8 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Receiving yards 11.6 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Marquis Johnson WR Receiving yards 34.0 -- Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Sanfrisco Magee WR Receiving yards 33.1 -- Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Kolin Wilson RB Rushing yards 30.4 -- Carries 9.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sam West TE Receiving yards 10.2 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Isaac Smith S Tackles 6.0 4-10 Marcus Williams S Tackles 5.9 4-9 Will Whitson DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jaray Bledsoe DL Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ALABAMA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Keelon Russell QB Passing yards 205.0 121-321 Pass attempts 26.2 18-40 Completions 16.3 10-25 Passing TDs 1.09 66% 1+, 30% 2+ Rushing yards 30.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ AK Dear RB Rushing yards 63.3 22-119 Carries 7.1 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Daniel Hill RB Rushing yards 61.6 21-102 Carries 10.5 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Receiving yards 29.3 10-66 Receptions 3.1 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ryan Coleman-Williams WR Rushing yards 16.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 55.0 19-97 Receptions 3.9 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Lotzeir Brooks WR Rushing yards 4.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 44.4 9-75 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Noah Rogers WR Receiving yards 42.6 7-65 Receptions 3.3 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Marshall Pritchett TE Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kaleb Edwards TE Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 1.9 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Caleb Woodson LB Tackles 5.8 3-10 Bray Hubbard DB Tackles 4.7 2-7 Yhonzae Pierre LB Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Devan Thompkins DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Mississippi State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Alabama recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------- ------ 2023 ALA 40 MSST 17 ALA Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status --------------- --- ---- ------ Michael Carroll OL ALA Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10348