Ohio at Kent State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ohio by 13.0 points, giving them a 77% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 49.4 combined points, with Kent State at 18.2 and Ohio at 31.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Kent State's margin lands between -35.1 and +9.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Kent State +13.0 / Ohio -13.0 Moneyline: Kent State +336 / Ohio -336 Win probability: Kent State 22.9% / Ohio 77.1% Projected total: 49.4 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Kent State: 1311.9, Ohio: 1557.6 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Kent State Ohio ----------------- ---------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -87.8 -65.9 travel_fatigue +2.5 +3.6 coaching_change -26.8 -20.1 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Ohio 31.1 -- Kent State 18.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Kent State margin -35.1 -24.8 -12.8 -1.3 +9.3 Total points 27.6 37.9 49.2 60.8 71.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: KENT STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Dru DeShields QB Passing yards 191.0 107-267 Pass attempts 24.2 16-28 Completions 13.9 8-16 Passing TDs 1.69 82% 1+, 50% 2+ Rushing yards 6.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Wayne Harris WR Receiving yards 41.3 6-70 Receptions 3.5 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Da'Realyst Clark WR Rushing yards 4.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 40.0 4-88 Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Ardell Banks WR Receiving yards 30.1 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Marques Hicks RB Rushing yards 27.0 -- Carries 3.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ayden Harris RB Rushing yards 18.5 -- Carries 4.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Terik Mulder TE Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Joel Cordoba DB Tackles 5.8 4-10 Derrick Jackson III DB Tackles 4.5 2-7 Rocco Nicholl LB Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Darian Blachewicz DL Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ OHIO Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Nick Poulos QB Passing yards 168.1 84-276 Pass attempts 24.9 16-41 Completions 13.6 8-21 Passing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Rushing yards 30.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Duncan Brune RB Rushing yards 47.0 6-77 Carries 10.4 5-16 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Receiving yards 15.7 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eian Pugh WR Receiving yards 22.5 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Victor Rosa RB Rushing yards 13.8 -- Carries 5.8 0-8 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 21.2 2-47 Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Dom Dorwart WR Receiving yards 19.4 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Michael Molnar LB Tackles 7.3 4-11 Jack Fries LB Tackles 7.0 4-11 Ike Ackerman DE Sacks 1.00 63% 1+, 26% 2+ Joseph Marsh DE Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Kent State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Ohio recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 OHIO 41 KENT 0 OHIO 2023 KENT 17 OHIO 42 OHIO ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10349