Stanford at Wake Forest NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Wake Forest by 16.2 points, giving them a 82% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 55.9 combined points, with Wake Forest at 35.9 and Stanford at 19.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Wake Forest's margin lands between -6.4 and +38.2 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Wake Forest -16.2 / Stanford +16.2 Moneyline: Wake Forest -457 / Stanford +457 Win probability: Wake Forest 82.0% / Stanford 18.0% Projected total: 55.9 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Wake Forest: 1552.8, Stanford: 1437.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Wake Forest Stanford ----------------- ----------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +3.9 +14.9 travel_fatigue +2.6 -2.9 coaching_change +7.1 -20.1 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +1.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Stanford 19.8 -- Wake Forest 35.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------------ ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Wake Forest margin -6.4 +4.4 +16.2 +27.8 +38.2 Total points 34.2 44.4 55.7 66.9 77.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: WAKE FOREST Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Gio Lopez QB Passing yards 278.6 194-366 Pass attempts 28.0 20-36 Completions 18.3 12-23 Passing TDs 1.65 81% 1+, 49% 2+ Rushing yards 28.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Carlos Hernandez WR Receiving yards 84.8 49-169 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Wondame Davis Jr. WR Receiving yards 66.5 31-137 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Kam Shanks WR Receiving yards 47.0 11-71 Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.47 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Ty Clark III RB Rushing yards 45.4 5-81 Carries 9.5 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Receiving yards 20.9 2-41 Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Jamar Searcy RB Rushing yards 29.5 -- Carries 3.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Landon Morris TE Receiving yards 25.8 1-35 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Kamrean Johnson TE Receiving yards 20.2 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Aiden Hall LB Tackles 6.0 3-10 Davaughn Patterson DB Tackles 5.6 4-9 Gabe Kirschke DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Dallas Afalava DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ STANFORD Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Micah Ford RB Rushing yards 49.1 8-90 Carries 12.9 8-21 Rushing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Caden High WR Receiving yards 36.4 1-70 Receptions 3.7 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Sedrick Irvin RB Rushing yards 27.3 -- Carries 7.8 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 8.6 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benji Blackburn TE Receiving yards 23.7 -- Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Marcus Brown WR Receiving yards 17.1 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Jordan Onovughe WR Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Matt Rose LB Tackles 9.3 6-12 Jahsiah Galvan LB Tackles 6.1 3-9 Gabe Kaminski LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Scotty Edwards S Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Wake Forest recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Stanford recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 WAKE 27 STAN 24 WAKE ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10350