Virginia at Florida State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Virginia by 5.5 points, giving them a 63% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 32.3 combined points, with Florida State at 13.3 and Virginia at 19.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Florida State's margin lands between -27.8 and +16.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Florida State +5.5 / Virginia -5.5 Moneyline: Florida State +168 / Virginia -168 Win probability: Florida State 37.3% / Virginia 62.7% Projected total: 32.3 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Florida State: 1435.3, Virginia: 1620.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Florida State Virginia ----------------- ------------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +56.6 +16.6 travel_fatigue +4.0 +2.1 coaching_change +7.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -4.4 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +14.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Virginia 19.0 -- Florida State 13.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Florida State margin -27.8 -17.1 -5.6 +5.8 +16.3 Total points 11.0 21.0 32.5 43.5 53.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: FLORIDA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Ashton Daniels QB Passing yards 169.3 85-265 Pass attempts 28.9 20-43 Completions 17.3 11-26 Passing TDs 0.64 47% 1+, 14% 2+ Rushing yards 44.5 5-73 Rushing TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Duce Robinson WR Receiving yards 64.9 29-107 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Quintrevion Wisner RB Rushing yards 56.7 16-98 Carries 12.4 7-19 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 18.4 -- Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Micahi Danzy WR Rushing yards 23.2 -- Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 49.2 14-88 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Ousmane Kromah RB Rushing yards 49.0 8-92 Carries 10.1 4-17 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 16.6 -- Receptions 1.6 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jayvan Boggs WR Receiving yards 31.0 -- Receptions 2.9 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Desirrio Riles TE Receiving yards 30.2 6-56 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Landen Thomas TE Receiving yards 16.8 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Chris Jones LB Tackles 8.7 6-12 Ja'Bril Rawls DB Tackles 5.7 4-10 Mandrell Desir DL Sacks 0.69 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Deamontae Diggs DL Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ VIRGINIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Beau Pribula QB Passing yards 183.9 100-272 Pass attempts 26.3 18-39 Completions 16.6 10-25 Passing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Rushing yards 38.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Jekail Middlebrook RB Rushing yards 64.5 24-100 Carries 12.8 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Receiving yards 29.1 10-58 Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Jacquon Gibson WR Rushing yards 14.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 61.7 26-112 Receptions 5.8 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Da'Shawn Martin WR Receiving yards 52.0 16-77 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.65 48% 1+, 14% 2+ Xavier Brown RB Rushing yards 43.0 2-62 Carries 8.8 4-11 Rushing TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Receiving yards 22.3 3-50 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.34 28% 1+ Rico Flores Jr. WR Receiving yards 38.9 3-61 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dakota Twitty TE Receiving yards 32.3 8-52 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ John Rogers TE Receiving yards 27.9 4-47 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kam Robinson LB Tackles 8.6 6-11 Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Jaylen Jones S Tackles 5.5 3-8 Nnanna Anyanwu DE Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Florida State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Virginia recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 FSU 38 UVA 46 UVA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10351