Akron at Central Michigan NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Central Michigan by 8.4 points, giving them a 69% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 41.4 combined points, with Central Michigan at 24.9 and Akron at 16.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Central Michigan's margin lands between -13.6 and +30.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Central Michigan -8.4 / Akron +8.4 Moneyline: Central Michigan -219 / Akron +219 Win probability: Central Michigan 68.7% / Akron 31.3% Projected total: 41.4 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Central Michigan: 1399.4, Akron: 1341.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Central Michigan Akron ----------------- ---------------- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -77.7 -73.7 travel_fatigue +0.1 +2.3 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 -20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Akron 16.4 -- Central Michigan 24.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ---- ---- ----- ----- Central Michigan margin -13.6 -3.2 +8.4 +20.3 +30.8 Total points 20.2 30.0 41.5 52.7 62.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CENTRAL MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Langston Lewis WR Rushing yards 4.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 70.1 34-119 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Angel Flores QB Passing yards 45.2 -- Pass attempts 8.3 -- Completions 4.6 -- Passing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Rushing yards 55.1 15-104 Rushing TDs 0.89 59% 1+, 22% 2+ Brock Townsend RB Rushing yards 46.7 6-71 Carries 9.2 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 23.5 4-56 Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Vaughn Blue RB Rushing yards 46.4 6-72 Carries 8.4 3-14 Rushing TDs 0.22 19% 1+ Receiving yards 25.7 6-61 Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Tommy McIntosh WR Receiving yards 42.9 7-85 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Nasir Williams WR Receiving yards 35.0 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.27 24% 1+ Jaion Jackson DB Tackles 4.5 2-6 JJ Douglas DL Tackles 3.5 2-5 Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Korver Demma DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ AKRON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Brayden Roggow QB Passing yards 75.7 -- Pass attempts 17.2 8-24 Completions 10.8 4-15 Passing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Jordan Gant RB Rushing yards 62.2 21-112 Carries 14.9 10-23 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 15.0 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Marcel Williams WR Receiving yards 58.8 23-116 Receptions 4.6 2-9 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Kyan Mason WR Receiving yards 42.3 7-79 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Jean Louis III WR Receiving yards 35.1 -- Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sean Patrick RB Rushing yards 33.5 -- Carries 9.2 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 18.5 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Conner Cravaack TE Receiving yards 16.1 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 22% 1+ Mehki Flowers DB Tackles 5.1 3-8 Jamari Somerville S Tackles 4.9 2-10 Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Cyrus Durham DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Central Michigan recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Akron recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 CMU 22 AKR 28 AKR 2023 AKR 10 CMU 17 CMU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10352