Army at Louisiana Tech NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Louisiana Tech by 1.1 points, giving them a 53% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.2 combined points, with Louisiana Tech at 23.1 and Army at 21.9. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Louisiana Tech's margin lands between -21.1 and +23.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Louisiana Tech -1.1 / Army +1.1 Moneyline: Louisiana Tech -111 / Army +111 Win probability: Louisiana Tech 52.6% / Army 47.4% Projected total: 45.2 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Louisiana Tech: 1471.6, Army: 1545.9 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Louisiana Tech Army ----------------- -------------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -75.9 -100.0 travel_fatigue +3.5 +0.4 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +20.0 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Army 21.9 -- Louisiana Tech 23.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ---- ----- ----- Louisiana Tech margin -21.1 -10.5 +1.4 +12.8 +23.6 Total points 23.5 33.7 45.0 56.3 66.6 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: LOUISIANA TECH Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Blake Baker QB Passing yards 184.5 100-291 Pass attempts 24.4 16-37 Completions 15.7 10-25 Passing TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Rushing yards 28.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.34 29% 1+ Andrew Burnette RB Rushing yards 57.6 17-106 Carries 10.6 5-17 Rushing TDs 0.81 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Receiving yards 9.1 -- Receptions 1.5 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jalen Mickens WR Receiving yards 31.8 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ David Pierro WR Receiving yards 27.6 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Eli Finley TE Receiving yards 21.8 -- Receptions 3.0 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kolbe Fields LB Tackles 6.2 4-10 Alonzo Jackson Jr. LB Tackles 5.9 3-9 Sacks 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Jadon Mayfield LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ARMY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cale Hellums QB Passing yards 115.5 31-160 Pass attempts 11.1 2-14 Completions 7.5 2-10 Passing TDs 0.63 47% 1+, 13% 2+ Rushing yards 93.2 54-147 Rushing TDs 1.39 75% 1+, 40% 2+ Godspower Nwawuihe RB Rushing yards 54.2 14-131 Carries 10.4 5-19 Rushing TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Brady Anderson WR Receiving yards 48.9 13-84 Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Carson Smith RB Rushing yards 33.3 -- Carries 7.5 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.24 21% 1+ Parker Poloskey TE Receiving yards 30.8 6-41 Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ Samari Howard WR Rushing yards 10.9 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 26.5 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Tobi Olawole WR Receiving yards 25.8 -- Receptions 1.3 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elijah Walton LB Tackles 3.9 1-8 Jaydan Mayes CB Tackles 3.8 2-6 Cole Searight DB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ Jack Bousum DL Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Louisiana Tech recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Army recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ---- ------- ------ 2024 LT 6 ARMY 27 ARMY ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10353