Notre Dame at North Carolina NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Notre Dame by 21.3 points, giving them a 88% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.4 combined points, with North Carolina at 12.6 and Notre Dame at 34.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, North Carolina's margin lands between -43.8 and +0.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: North Carolina +21.3 / Notre Dame -21.3 Moneyline: North Carolina +735 / Notre Dame -735 Win probability: North Carolina 12.0% / Notre Dame 88.0% Projected total: 46.4 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- North Carolina: 1448.2, Notre Dame: 1800.5 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor North Carolina Notre Dame ----------------- -------------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +56.5 +100.0 travel_fatigue +0.8 +2.3 coaching_change +9.5 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency -1.1 +15.1 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector -0.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened North Carolina +23.5 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +23.5 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Notre Dame 34.0 -- North Carolina 12.6 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- North Carolina margin -43.8 -33.1 -21.5 -9.8 +0.8 Total points 25.0 35.3 46.6 57.9 68.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: NORTH CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Billy Edwards Jr. QB Passing yards 179.4 95-298 Pass attempts 24.5 16-39 Completions 14.4 8-23 Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Shipp WR Receiving yards 56.5 21-82 Receptions 5.3 4-7 Receiving TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Trech Kekahuna WR Rushing yards 20.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 30.2 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Demon June RB Rushing yards 25.3 -- Carries 8.6 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.07 6% 1+ Receiving yards 13.1 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.08 7% 1+ Jelani Thurman TE Receiving yards 25.1 1-58 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Benjamin Hall RB Rushing yards 24.2 -- Carries 9.4 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.07 6% 1+ Receiving yards 6.9 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jordan Washington TE Receiving yards 18.3 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Nathan Leacock WR Receiving yards 18.2 -- Receptions 1.8 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derek McDonald LB Tackles 5.7 3-11 Melkart Abou Jaoude DL Tackles 4.5 3-6 Sacks 1.19 70% 1+, 33% 2+ Xavier Lewis DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ NOTRE DAME Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- CJ Carr QB Passing yards 188.8 104-264 Pass attempts 25.0 16-33 Completions 16.5 10-22 Passing TDs 1.91 85% 1+, 57% 2+ Rushing yards 6.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Jordan Faison WR Receiving yards 50.3 15-81 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.39 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Aneyas Williams RB Rushing yards 46.4 6-77 Carries 9.8 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.95 61% 1+, 25% 2+ Jaden Greathouse WR Receiving yards 38.3 3-59 Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Micah Gilbert WR Receiving yards 29.9 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Jack Larsen TE Receiving yards 24.6 0-41 Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nolan James Jr. RB Rushing yards 24.0 -- Carries 6.8 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Ty Washington TE Receiving yards 18.9 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Drayk Bowen LB Tackles 5.9 3-10 Brauntae Johnson S Tackles 5.1 2-7 Boubacar Traore DL Sacks 0.81 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Keon Keeley DL Sacks 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ North Carolina recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Notre Dame recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10354