Old Dominion at Georgia State NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Old Dominion by 6.2 points, giving them a 64% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 54.4 combined points, with Georgia State at 24.1 and Old Dominion at 30.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Georgia State's margin lands between -28.5 and +15.7 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Georgia State +6.2 / Old Dominion -6.2 Moneyline: Georgia State +179 / Old Dominion -179 Win probability: Georgia State 35.8% / Old Dominion 64.2% Projected total: 54.4 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:02 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Georgia State: 1351.0, Old Dominion: 1557.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Georgia State Old Dominion ----------------- ------------- ------------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -57.8 -75.2 travel_fatigue +3.9 +3.0 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +2.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Old Dominion 30.4 -- Georgia State 24.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Georgia State margin -28.5 -17.8 -6.4 +5.5 +15.7 Total points 33.0 43.2 54.6 65.8 76.0 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: GEORGIA STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Cameran Brown QB Passing yards 149.3 65-239 Pass attempts 24.8 16-38 Completions 15.7 10-25 Passing TDs 1.02 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Rushing yards 28.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Kyle Washington WR Receiving yards 35.6 0-61 Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Riles WR Receiving yards 28.6 -- Receptions 2.7 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Grant Hollier TE Receiving yards 27.2 3-40 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Jaylin Marshall WR Receiving yards 27.2 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dennis Murray Jr. RB Rushing yards 24.8 -- Carries 7.1 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Receiving yards 15.5 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson DE Tackles 4.8 4-8 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Coby Owens LB Tackles 4.2 2-7 Richard Kramer DE Sacks 0.40 33% 1+, 6% 2+ OLD DOMINION Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Quinn Henicle QB Passing yards 146.6 62-246 Pass attempts 20.5 12-32 Completions 11.2 5-18 Passing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Rushing yards 40.5 1-89 Rushing TDs 0.52 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Devin Roche RB Rushing yards 69.8 29-122 Carries 12.0 6-18 Rushing TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Maurki James RB Rushing yards 42.5 2-73 Carries 8.5 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Receiving yards 18.7 -- Receptions 2.1 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sidney Mbanasor WR Receiving yards 29.1 -- Receptions 2.3 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ TJ Johnson WR Receiving yards 27.6 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.30 26% 1+ Leon Haughton Jr. TE Receiving yards 23.4 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.71 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Mario Easterly S Tackles 5.6 4-8 Zion Frink CB Tackles 5.2 4-9 Hunter Malecki DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Jackson Forrest LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Georgia State recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Old Dominion recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 GAST 10 ODU 27 ODU 2024 ODU 21 GAST 14 ODU 2023 GAST 24 ODU 25 ODU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10355