Vanderbilt at Georgia NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia by 16.4 points, giving them a 82% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 56.3 combined points, with Georgia at 36.3 and Vanderbilt at 20.1. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Georgia's margin lands between -5.8 and +38.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Georgia -16.4 / Vanderbilt +16.4 Moneyline: Georgia -466 / Vanderbilt +466 Win probability: Georgia 82.3% / Vanderbilt 17.7% Projected total: 56.3 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Georgia: 1783.6, Vanderbilt: 1667.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Georgia Vanderbilt ----------------- ------- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +32.6 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.3 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +12.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +10.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Vanderbilt 20.1 -- Georgia 36.3 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- Georgia margin -5.8 +4.7 +16.2 +28.2 +38.4 Total points 35.2 45.1 56.4 67.7 77.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: GEORGIA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Gunner Stockton QB Passing yards 220.4 136-290 Pass attempts 26.3 18-32 Completions 17.9 12-22 Passing TDs 2.74 94% 1+, 76% 2+ Rushing yards 26.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ Nate Frazier RB Rushing yards 67.9 27-117 Carries 12.1 6-16 Rushing TDs 0.54 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Dante Dowdell RB Rushing yards 45.0 4-80 Carries 9.4 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.11 10% 1+ Receiving yards 10.2 -- Receptions 1.8 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Elyiss Williams TE Receiving yards 38.5 14-61 Receptions 2.0 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Lawson Luckie TE Receiving yards 34.9 11-56 Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.51 40% 1+, 9% 2+ Isiah Canion WR Receiving yards 32.6 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.25 22% 1+ London Humphreys WR Receiving yards 31.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Sacovie White-Helton WR Receiving yards 24.6 -- Receptions 1.2 1-1 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Ja'Marley Riddle S Tackles 5.8 4-8 KJ Bolden DB Tackles 5.5 4-9 Zayden Walker LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Amaris Williams LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ VANDERBILT Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Junior Sherrill WR Receiving yards 66.3 31-108 Receptions 4.3 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Blaze Berlowitz QB Passing yards 52.6 -- Pass attempts 8.8 -- Completions 4.3 -- Passing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Rushing yards 20.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Ja'Cory Thomas WR Receiving yards 50.6 15-66 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Tristen Brown WR Receiving yards 32.4 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sedrick Alexander RB Rushing yards 28.4 -- Carries 9.5 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 12.7 -- Receptions 2.5 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Makhilyn Young RB Rushing yards 26.5 -- Carries 6.4 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Receiving yards 12.1 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cole Spence TE Receiving yards 25.5 1-40 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Jayvontay Conner TE Receiving yards 23.5 -- Receptions 2.8 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Bryan Longwell LB Tackles 6.2 4-11 CJ Heard S Tackles 5.9 4-8 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Nick Rinaldi LB Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Georgia recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Vanderbilt recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 UGA 37 VAN 20 UGA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10356