Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Georgia Southern by 6.2 points, giving them a 64% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 65.8 combined points, with Coastal Carolina at 29.8 and Georgia Southern at 36.2. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Coastal Carolina's margin lands between -28.8 and +16.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Coastal Carolina +6.2 / Georgia Southern -6.2 Moneyline: Coastal Carolina +179 / Georgia Southern -179 Win probability: Coastal Carolina 35.8% / Georgia Southern 64.2% Projected total: 65.8 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Coastal Carolina: 1407.5, Georgia Southern: 1474.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Coastal Carolina Georgia Southern ----------------- ---------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -57.7 -22.3 travel_fatigue +2.8 +3.3 coaching_change -26.8 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -8.8 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +1.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Georgia Southern 36.2 -- Coastal Carolina 29.8 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ----------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Coastal Carolina margin -28.8 -18.1 -6.6 +5.5 +16.0 Total points 45.0 54.8 65.9 77.3 87.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: COASTAL CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Deuce Bailey QB Passing yards 214.2 130-395 Pass attempts 29.0 20-42 Completions 17.0 11-25 Passing TDs 1.32 73% 1+, 38% 2+ Rushing yards 31.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Daelen Alexander RB Rushing yards 67.8 27-129 Carries 9.7 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ Jevon Edwards RB Rushing yards 53.8 13-88 Carries 8.1 2-11 Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Receiving yards 13.9 -- Receptions 1.7 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Clayton Coppock Jr. WR Rushing yards 16.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Receiving yards 51.4 16-90 Receptions 3.4 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.68 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Tristian Gardner WR Receiving yards 50.6 15-81 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Robby Washington WR Rushing yards 6.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 37.7 2-67 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.23 20% 1+ Zach Courtney TE Receiving yards 21.5 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Se'Von McDowell LB Tackles 5.2 2-8 Ja'Marion Wayne CB Tackles 5.0 4-8 DJ Wesolak DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Tray Brown LB Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ GEORGIA SOUTHERN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Max Johnson QB Passing yards 180.3 96-280 Pass attempts 28.5 20-47 Completions 17.5 12-28 Passing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Rushing yards 19.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Ashton Hollins WR Receiving yards 57.5 22-100 Receptions 3.0 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.72 51% 1+, 16% 2+ Jamarian Samuel RB Rushing yards 55.1 14-95 Carries 5.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Josh Dallas WR Receiving yards 46.7 11-66 Receptions 4.5 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ David Mbadinga RB Rushing yards 38.4 -- Carries 8.6 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Receiving yards 19.2 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Taylor Bradshaw WR Receiving yards 21.5 -- Receptions 2.2 -- Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Anthony Bynum LB Tackles 5.6 2-8 Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Brandon Tyson LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 MJ Stroud LB Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Coastal Carolina recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Georgia Southern recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 CCU 40 GASO 45 GASO 2024 GASO 26 CCU 6 GASO 2023 CCU 28 GASO 38 GASO ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10357