Memphis at Charlotte NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Memphis by 20.2 points, giving them a 87% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 49.5 combined points, with Charlotte at 14.9 and Memphis at 35.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Charlotte's margin lands between -42.3 and +2.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Charlotte +20.2 / Memphis -20.2 Moneyline: Charlotte +662 / Memphis -662 Win probability: Charlotte 13.1% / Memphis 86.9% Projected total: 49.5 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Charlotte: 1234.3, Memphis: 1543.1 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Charlotte Memphis ----------------- --------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -56.1 -0.5 travel_fatigue +2.5 -1.9 coaching_change +9.5 -13.4 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +16.5 blowout_hangover -20.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +0.5 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Memphis 35.0 -- Charlotte 14.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ---------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Charlotte margin -42.3 -31.9 -20.3 -8.4 +2.3 Total points 28.4 38.8 50.1 61.2 71.3 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CHARLOTTE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Grayson Loftis QB Passing yards 190.8 107-312 Pass attempts 25.5 17-35 Completions 15.0 9-22 Passing TDs 0.80 55% 1+, 19% 2+ Rushing yards -1.7 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaden Barnes WR Receiving yards 56.4 21-128 Receptions 4.8 2-10 Receiving TDs 0.60 45% 1+, 12% 2+ Chance Williams RB Rushing yards 40.1 -- Carries 8.0 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jariel Cobb RB Rushing yards 34.9 -- Carries 8.8 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 11.4 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Derrick Eley WR Receiving yards 34.4 -- Receptions 1.5 -- Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Lane Wadle TE Receiving yards 22.2 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylen Hampton WR Receiving yards 22.0 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Gus McGee TE Receiving yards 20.5 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Gavin Willis LB Tackles 5.9 3-9 Kadin Schmitz LB Tackles 5.1 2-8 Jaylon Johnson DL Sacks 0.14 13% 1+ Curtis Simpson DL Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ MEMPHIS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Marcus Stokes QB Passing yards 301.6 217-457 Pass attempts 25.7 17-33 Completions 16.0 10-19 Passing TDs 2.06 87% 1+, 61% 2+ Rushing yards 39.0 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jaylin Carter RB Rushing yards 56.3 16-120 Carries 9.9 4-16 Rushing TDs 1.29 72% 1+, 37% 2+ Receiving yards 21.2 2-31 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Terrell Timmons Jr. WR Receiving yards 50.3 15-79 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tychaun Chapman WR Receiving yards 49.3 14-76 Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Manny Covey RB Rushing yards 47.6 7-86 Carries 9.2 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Receiving yards 20.0 1-36 Receptions 2.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Hunter Tipton TE Receiving yards 43.4 19-116 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Brady Kluse WR Receiving yards 35.4 -- Receptions 2.5 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Mike Montgomery LB Tackles 7.5 4-11 Ian Foster S Tackles 6.5 4-9 Elijah Kinsler DL Sacks 1.17 69% 1+, 32% 2+ J'Mond Tapp DL Sacks 0.75 53% 1+, 17% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Charlotte recent form: 0-5 over last 5 games Memphis recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 CLT 28 MEM 33 MEM 2023 MEM 44 CLT 38 MEM ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10358