Marshall at James Madison NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors James Madison by 17.6 points, giving them a 84% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 66.1 combined points, with James Madison at 41.9 and Marshall at 24.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, James Madison's margin lands between -5.2 and +39.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: James Madison -17.6 / Marshall +17.6 Moneyline: James Madison -518 / Marshall +518 Win probability: James Madison 83.8% / Marshall 16.2% Projected total: 66.1 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- James Madison: 1700.2, Marshall: 1475.2 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor James Madison Marshall ----------------- ------------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -49.3 -34.1 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.4 coaching_change -26.8 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency +11.7 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +12.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Marshall 24.5 -- James Madison 41.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- James Madison margin -5.2 +5.7 +17.7 +29.2 +39.6 Total points 44.7 54.9 66.4 77.7 88.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: JAMES MADISON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Arrington Maiden QB Passing yards 70.7 -- Pass attempts 8.3 -- Completions 5.3 -- Passing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Rushing yards 20.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Braeden Wisloski WR Receiving yards 49.4 14-79 Receptions 2.7 0-5 Receiving TDs 0.68 50% 1+, 15% 2+ Michael Scott WR Receiving yards 37.2 2-64 Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ George Pettaway RB Rushing yards 28.4 -- Carries 7.9 2-13 Rushing TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Receiving yards 18.6 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Za'Ron Collins WR Receiving yards 21.0 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Nakian Jackson LB Tackles 6.2 4-11 Gannon Weathersby LB Tackles 4.8 2-9 Jayden Studio LB Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ DJ Kelly CB Sacks 0.17 15% 1+ MARSHALL Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Carlos Del Rio-Wilson QB Passing yards 164.5 80-241 Pass attempts 26.7 18-37 Completions 16.7 10-23 Passing TDs 0.83 56% 1+, 20% 2+ Rushing yards 45.1 5-75 Rushing TDs 0.36 30% 1+, 5% 2+ Adrian Norton WR Receiving yards 53.8 18-109 Receptions 4.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.53 41% 1+, 10% 2+ De'Andre Tamarez WR Receiving yards 48.0 12-73 Receptions 3.5 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.13 12% 1+ Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw WR Rushing yards 10.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.35 30% 1+ Receiving yards 41.4 6-76 Receptions 2.4 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Jo'Shon Barbie RB Rushing yards 33.5 -- Carries 8.7 3-13 Rushing TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Receiving yards 8.9 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Toby Payne TE Receiving yards 21.0 -- Receptions 3.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Boogie Trotter CB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Javae Gilmore LB Tackles 5.5 2-8 Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ Braydin Ward DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ James Madison recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Marshall recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2025 JMU 35 MRSH 23 JMU 2024 MRSH 35 JMU 33 MRSH 2023 JMU 20 MRSH 9 JMU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10359