Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Eastern Michigan by 3.2 points, giving them a 57% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 47.6 combined points, with Massachusetts at 21.9 and Eastern Michigan at 25.3. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Massachusetts's margin lands between -25.5 and +18.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Massachusetts +3.2 / Eastern Michigan -3.2 Moneyline: Massachusetts +135 / Eastern Michigan -135 Win probability: Massachusetts 42.6% / Eastern Michigan 57.4% Projected total: 47.6 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Massachusetts: 1244.2, Eastern Michigan: 1349.8 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Massachusetts Eastern Michigan ----------------- ------------- ---------------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent -86.0 -26.9 travel_fatigue +3.5 +2.2 coaching_change +9.5 +4.7 ncaa_efficiency -4.5 -20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +6.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Eastern Michigan 25.3 -- Massachusetts 21.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------------- ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Massachusetts margin -25.5 -15.1 -3.3 +8.0 +18.6 Total points 25.7 36.0 47.2 58.6 68.9 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MASSACHUSETTS Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Justin Williams-Thomas RB Rushing yards 49.8 9-82 Carries 6.4 1-9 Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Elijah Faulkner RB Rushing yards 47.3 7-78 Carries 9.1 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Kezion Dia-Johnson WR Receiving yards 34.2 -- Receptions 2.7 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.41 33% 1+, 6% 2+ Reece Adkins TE Receiving yards 24.9 1-43 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ Max Dowling TE Receiving yards 24.2 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.26 22% 1+ Dallas Elliott WR Receiving yards 20.7 -- Receptions 2.3 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Timmy Hinspeter LB Tackles 8.7 6-13 Sacks 0.29 25% 1+ Tyler Martin LB Tackles 8.5 6-12 Zeraun Daniel S Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ EASTERN MICHIGAN Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds --------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Noah Kim QB Passing yards 244.2 160-323 Pass attempts 33.8 25-40 Completions 20.8 14-25 Passing TDs 2.16 88% 1+, 64% 2+ Rushing yards 13.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 14% 2+ Amareon Blue RB Rushing yards 72.5 32-103 Carries 10.8 6-13 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Braydon Bennett RB Rushing yards 60.5 20-88 Carries 9.3 4-12 Rushing TDs 0.41 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Harold Mack WR Receiving yards 57.6 22-116 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Nick Devereaux WR Receiving yards 50.8 15-96 Receptions 3.7 2-6 Receiving TDs 1.03 64% 1+, 27% 2+ Benson Prosper WR Rushing yards 14.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 30.4 -- Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Tanner Lemaster TE Receiving yards 20.6 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Joshua Long TE Receiving yards 20.3 -- Receptions 3.2 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Zach Mowchan LB Tackles 7.2 4-12 Bryce Llewellyn DB Tackles 6.7 4-10 Quincy Byas DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Ronn Hardin DL Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Massachusetts recent form: 1-4 over last 5 games Eastern Michigan recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------- ------ 2024 EMU 28 MASS 14 EMU 2023 MASS 17 EMU 19 EMU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10360