Kentucky at South Carolina NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors South Carolina by 15.1 points, giving them a 80% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.0 combined points, with South Carolina at 30.1 and Kentucky at 15.0. Simulating the game 10,000 times, South Carolina's margin lands between -7.4 and +37.4 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: South Carolina -15.1 / Kentucky +15.1 Moneyline: South Carolina -410 / Kentucky +410 Win probability: South Carolina 80.4% / Kentucky 19.6% Projected total: 45.0 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- South Carolina: 1522.4, Kentucky: 1444.3 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor South Carolina Kentucky ----------------- -------------- -------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +100.0 +67.5 travel_fatigue +4.0 +3.0 coaching_change +9.5 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 -20.0 home_field_vector +12.4 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Kentucky 15.0 -- South Carolina 30.1 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------------- ---- ---- ----- ----- ----- South Carolina margin -7.4 +3.5 +15.2 +26.8 +37.4 Total points 24.0 33.9 45.0 56.5 66.5 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: SOUTH CAROLINA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- LaNorris Sellers QB Passing yards 230.0 146-324 Pass attempts 28.9 20-36 Completions 17.6 12-20 Passing TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Rushing yards 25.5 -- Rushing TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Jayden Sellers WR Receiving yards 65.8 30-108 Receptions 4.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Nyck Harbor WR Receiving yards 62.1 26-105 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.59 44% 1+, 12% 2+ Donovan Murph WR Receiving yards 49.1 14-83 Receptions 3.0 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Matt Fuller RB Rushing yards 45.0 4-82 Carries 8.9 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Receiving yards 13.6 -- Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Christian Clark RB Rushing yards 44.2 4-83 Carries 9.4 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Receiving yards 21.4 2-35 Receptions 2.3 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Brady Hunt TE Receiving yards 17.1 -- Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Max Drag TE Receiving yards 11.2 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Justin Okoronkwo LB Tackles 5.7 3-8 Fred Johnson LB Tackles 5.0 2-7 Drew Collins DE Sacks 0.33 28% 1+ Caleb Herring DE Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ KENTUCKY Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ----------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Kenny Minchey QB Passing yards 93.9 10-140 Pass attempts 18.7 10-30 Completions 11.2 5-18 Passing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Rushing yards 16.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Jason Patterson RB Rushing yards 43.7 3-73 Carries 9.8 4-15 Rushing TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Receiving yards 16.7 -- Receptions 2.7 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.12 11% 1+ Willie Rodriguez TE Receiving yards 43.4 19-81 Receptions 3.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Xavier Daisy WR Receiving yards 39.7 4-61 Receptions 4.1 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.17 16% 1+ DJ Miller WR Receiving yards 36.3 1-85 Receptions 2.9 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ CJ Baxter RB Rushing yards 36.1 -- Carries 9.0 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 15% 1+ Henry Boyer TE Receiving yards 31.3 7-40 Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Nic Anderson WR Receiving yards 17.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.20 18% 1+ Ty Bryant DB Tackles 6.6 4-10 Jordan Castell DB Tackles 6.4 4-10 Tavion Gadson DL Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ South Carolina recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Kentucky recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ----- ----- ------ 2025 UK 13 SC 35 SC 2024 SC 31 UK 6 SC 2023 UK 14 SC 17 SC ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10361