Miami at Clemson NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Miami by 13.7 points, giving them a 78% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 41.6 combined points, with Clemson at 13.9 and Miami at 27.7. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Clemson's margin lands between -36.6 and +8.6 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Clemson +13.7 / Miami -13.7 Moneyline: Clemson +360 / Miami -360 Win probability: Clemson 21.7% / Miami 78.3% Projected total: 41.6 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Clemson: 1559.0, Miami: 1799.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Clemson Miami ----------------- ------- ------ elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +84.3 +100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 -2.6 coaching_change +7.1 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +4.3 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. Line movement: opened Clemson +7.0 (July 13, 2026 at 7:21 AM UTC), now +7.0 (August 10, 2026 at 12:20 PM UTC), 115 snapshots on record. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Miami 27.7 -- Clemson 13.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th -------------- ----- ----- ----- ---- ---- Clemson margin -36.6 -26.0 -13.7 -1.8 +8.6 Total points 19.9 30.4 41.5 53.0 63.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: CLEMSON Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Christopher Vizzina QB Passing yards 149.2 65-282 Pass attempts 23.9 15-41 Completions 15.0 9-27 Passing TDs 0.57 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Rushing yards 8.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ T.J. Moore WR Receiving yards 68.2 33-102 Receptions 4.6 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.32 28% 1+ Bryant Wesco Jr. WR Receiving yards 64.2 29-104 Receptions 4.5 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.48 38% 1+, 8% 2+ Chris Johnson Jr. RB Rushing yards 38.5 -- Carries 7.8 2-10 Rushing TDs 0.14 13% 1+ Receiving yards 14.2 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.07 7% 1+ Tristan Smith WR Receiving yards 34.6 -- Receptions 3.2 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.08 8% 1+ Gideon Davidson RB Rushing yards 31.4 -- Carries 9.4 4-14 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.8 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Christian Bentancur TE Receiving yards 25.5 1-47 Receptions 2.6 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.19 18% 1+ Olsen Patt-Henry TE Receiving yards 16.2 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sammy Brown LB Tackles 9.1 6-12 Corey Myrick S Tackles 8.0 6-10 Will Heldt DE Sacks 0.56 43% 1+, 11% 2+ Jahiem Lawson DE Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ MIAMI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Darian Mensah QB Passing yards 289.5 205-391 Pass attempts 33.4 24-42 Completions 22.1 16-26 Passing TDs 2.51 92% 1+, 71% 2+ Rushing yards 9.4 -- Rushing TDs 0.11 11% 1+ Malachi Toney WR Rushing yards 17.8 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 92.6 57-187 Receptions 6.2 4-10 Receiving TDs 1.44 76% 1+, 42% 2+ Cooper Barkate WR Receiving yards 74.8 39-118 Receptions 4.4 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.57 44% 1+, 11% 2+ Vandrevius Jacobs WR Receiving yards 74.8 39-148 Receptions 4.0 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.49 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Mark Fletcher Jr. RB Rushing yards 65.3 25-120 Carries 13.0 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.37 31% 1+, 5% 2+ Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 2.5 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Girard Pringle Jr. RB Rushing yards 48.6 8-91 Carries 9.6 4-16 Rushing TDs 0.24 22% 1+ Elija Lofton TE Receiving yards 17.0 -- Receptions 1.6 -- Receiving TDs 0.32 27% 1+ Omar Thornton DB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Mohamed Toure LB Tackles 5.6 2-9 Damon Wilson II DL Sacks 0.62 46% 1+, 13% 2+ Ahmad Moten Sr. DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Clemson recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Miami recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------- ------ ------ 2023 CLEM 20 MIA 28 MIA ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10362