Ohio State at Iowa NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Ohio State by 4.8 points, giving them a 61% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 32.1 combined points, with Iowa at 13.7 and Ohio State at 18.4. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Iowa's margin lands between -26.9 and +17.8 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Iowa +4.8 / Ohio State -4.8 Moneyline: Iowa +157 / Ohio State -157 Win probability: Iowa 38.9% / Ohio State 61.2% Projected total: 32.1 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Iowa: 1703.8, Ohio State: 1785.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Iowa Ohio State ----------------- ----- ---------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +22.4 +100.0 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.4 coaching_change +7.1 +7.1 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +13.1 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Ohio State 18.4 -- Iowa 13.7 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- Iowa margin -26.9 -16.6 -4.8 +7.1 +17.8 Total points 10.5 20.6 32.0 43.5 53.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: IOWA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ---------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Hank Brown QB Passing yards 102.0 18-152 Pass attempts 24.0 16-35 Completions 15.0 9-24 Passing TDs 0.31 26% 1+ Kamari Moulton RB Rushing yards 54.8 14-84 Carries 13.9 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.42 34% 1+, 7% 2+ Receiving yards 12.9 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ DJ Vonnahme TE Receiving yards 39.1 15-80 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Nathan McNeil RB Rushing yards 25.5 -- Carries 8.0 2-12 Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 15.2 -- Receptions 2.6 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Reece Vander Zee WR Receiving yards 22.7 -- Receptions 2.4 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.16 14% 1+ Zach Ortwerth TE Receiving yards 15.3 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Dayton Howard WR Receiving yards 15.2 -- Receptions 1.7 -- Receiving TDs 0.10 10% 1+ Cam Buffington LB Tackles 5.8 3-12 Tyler Brown DB Tackles 5.8 4-10 Sacks 0.12 12% 1+ Lance Ingold DL Sacks 0.30 26% 1+ OHIO STATE Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Julian Sayin QB Passing yards 200.4 116-251 Pass attempts 29.0 20-34 Completions 19.9 14-24 Passing TDs 1.20 70% 1+, 34% 2+ Rushing yards -1.6 -- Rushing TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Jeremiah Smith WR Rushing yards 13.3 -- Rushing TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Receiving yards 96.7 61-154 Receptions 5.7 4-8 Receiving TDs 0.74 52% 1+, 17% 2+ Bo Jackson RB Rushing yards 81.5 41-107 Carries 13.5 8-18 Rushing TDs 0.45 36% 1+, 8% 2+ Receiving yards 26.3 7-47 Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Devin McCuin WR Receiving yards 60.7 25-108 Receptions 4.6 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.46 37% 1+, 8% 2+ Ja'Kobi Jackson RB Rushing yards 51.3 10-85 Carries 7.9 2-9 Rushing TDs 0.29 25% 1+ Kyle Parker WR Receiving yards 39.8 4-68 Receptions 3.5 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Hunter Welcing TE Receiving yards 22.6 -- Receptions 2.9 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Mason Williams TE Receiving yards 17.8 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.09 8% 1+ Earl Little Jr. S Tackles 6.2 4-8 Christian Alliegro LB Tackles 4.8 2-8 Kenyatta Jackson Jr. DE Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Eddrick Houston DT Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Iowa recent form: 5-0 over last 5 games Ohio State recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2024 IOWA 7 OSU 35 OSU ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10363