BYU at TCU NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors BYU by 4.3 points, giving them a 60% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 46.4 combined points, with TCU at 20.9 and BYU at 25.5. Simulating the game 10,000 times, TCU's margin lands between -26.9 and +18.0 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. Injury watch: Raider Damuni (Out). ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: TCU +4.3 / BYU -4.3 Moneyline: TCU +149 / BYU -149 Win probability: TCU 40.1% / BYU 59.9% Projected total: 46.4 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- TCU: 1562.6, BYU: 1706.4 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor TCU BYU ----------------- ----- ----- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 -3.0 roster_talent +34.6 +10.3 travel_fatigue +4.0 +1.2 coaching_change +9.5 +9.5 ncaa_efficiency -20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +18.8 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: BYU 25.5 -- TCU 20.9 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ------------ ----- ----- ---- ---- ----- TCU margin -26.9 -16.5 -4.8 +6.9 +18.0 Total points 25.1 35.1 46.5 57.7 67.8 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: TCU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds -------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jeremy Payne RB Rushing yards 62.2 21-122 Carries 11.9 6-21 Rushing TDs 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 23.0 4-39 Receptions 2.9 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.19 17% 1+ Jordan Dwyer WR Receiving yards 47.6 12-86 Receptions 4.1 2-7 Receiving TDs 0.55 42% 1+, 10% 2+ Jeremy Scott WR Receiving yards 43.1 8-85 Receptions 3.1 1-5 Receiving TDs 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Ed Small WR Receiving yards 41.2 6-81 Receptions 3.8 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jon Denman RB Rushing yards 33.1 -- Carries 8.7 3-12 Rushing TDs 0.28 25% 1+ Jamel Johnson S Tackles 6.5 4-8 Michael Short LB Tackles 5.3 2-10 Ansel Din-Mbuh DT Sacks 0.31 27% 1+ Kylin Jackson S Sacks 0.19 17% 1+ BYU Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Bear Bachmeier QB Passing yards 261.3 177-363 Pass attempts 30.6 22-37 Completions 19.9 14-24 Passing TDs 1.30 73% 1+, 37% 2+ Rushing yards 31.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.58 44% 1+, 11% 2+ LJ Martin RB Rushing yards 63.1 22-124 Carries 14.0 8-23 Rushing TDs 0.67 49% 1+, 15% 2+ Receiving yards 22.0 3-37 Receptions 3.2 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Sione Moa RB Rushing yards 36.5 -- Carries 9.2 4-13 Rushing TDs 0.22 20% 1+ Receiving yards 17.3 -- Receptions 2.7 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jojo Phillips WR Receiving yards 32.8 -- Receptions 2.6 0-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Walker Lyons TE Receiving yards 27.7 3-43 Receptions 2.5 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Roger Saleapaga II TE Receiving yards 24.3 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Tiger Bachmeier WR Receiving yards 22.9 -- Receptions 2.0 -- Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Cade Uluave LB Tackles 7.8 5-14 Sacks 0.38 31% 1+, 6% 2+ Faletau Satuala S Tackles 6.6 4-10 Tausili Akana DE Sacks 0.43 35% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ TCU recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games BYU recent form: 4-1 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2025 TCU 13 BYU 44 BYU 2023 BYU 11 TCU 44 TCU Injury/hazard flags: Player Pos Team Status ------------- --- ---- ------ Raider Damuni S BYU Out ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10364