Florida at Missouri NCAA, Week 5, 2026 regular season Kickoff: October 3, 2026 at 4:00 AM UTC Status: scheduled ============================================================ WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ spreadsim's model favors Missouri by 11.2 points, giving them a 74% chance to win outright. It projects a total of 45.0 combined points, with Missouri at 28.2 and Florida at 16.8. Simulating the game 10,000 times, Missouri's margin lands between -10.7 and +33.3 points 80% of the time -- a real range, not a single guessed score. ============================================================ THE PREDICTION IN DETAIL ============================================================ Spread: Missouri -11.2 / Florida +11.2 Moneyline: Missouri -285 / Florida +285 Win probability: Missouri 74.1% / Florida 25.9% Projected total: 45.0 points Last recalculated: September 13, 2026 at 10:03 AM UTC This comes from each team's Elo rating -- Missouri: 1607.6, Florida: 1517.7 -- plus a +65.0-point home-field edge, adjusted by these real per-team factors (16.2 Elo points per spread point): Adjustment factor Missouri Florida ----------------- -------- ------- elevation +0.0 +0.0 injury_hazard +0.0 +0.0 roster_talent +80.3 +100.0 travel_fatigue +3.5 +1.4 coaching_change +9.5 -26.8 ncaa_efficiency +20.0 +20.0 blowout_hangover +0.0 +0.0 home_field_vector +8.6 -- consecutive_road -- +0.0 ============================================================ HOW THIS COMPARES TO THE MARKET ============================================================ No market line available for this game yet. ============================================================ RANGE OF LIKELY OUTCOMES ============================================================ Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Projected score: Florida 16.8 -- Missouri 28.2 Percentile 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th --------------- ----- ---- ----- ----- ----- Missouri margin -10.7 -0.3 +11.3 +23.1 +33.3 Total points 24.0 33.8 44.8 56.4 66.2 ============================================================ PLAYER PROPS: WHAT TO EXPECT ============================================================ Individual player projections, with each stat's real 68% likely range or touchdown probability: MISSOURI Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------- --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Austin Simmons QB Passing yards 209.4 125-391 Pass attempts 22.8 14-38 Completions 14.0 8-24 Passing TDs 1.05 65% 1+, 28% 2+ Rushing yards 21.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.18 16% 1+ Ahmad Hardy RB Rushing yards 86.2 45-189 Carries 14.7 9-21 Rushing TDs 1.35 74% 1+, 39% 2+ Receiving yards 11.4 -- Receptions 1.9 0-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Jamal Roberts RB Rushing yards 68.1 27-126 Carries 11.7 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.77 54% 1+, 18% 2+ Receiving yards 16.4 -- Receptions 2.2 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Donovan Olugbode WR Receiving yards 60.2 25-100 Receptions 3.6 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.28 24% 1+ Cayden Lee WR Receiving yards 57.2 22-102 Receptions 4.0 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Caleb Goodie Sr. WR Receiving yards 53.4 18-91 Receptions 3.3 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.09 9% 1+ Brett Norfleet TE Receiving yards 20.3 -- Receptions 2.8 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.21 19% 1+ Jordon Harris TE Receiving yards 16.9 -- Receptions 1.4 2-2 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Nicholas Rodriguez LB Tackles 6.6 4-10 Robert Woodyard Jr. LB Tackles 6.3 4-9 Donta Simpson DT Sacks 0.50 39% 1+, 9% 2+ Sterling Webb DT Sacks 0.25 22% 1+ FLORIDA Player Pos Stat Proj. 68% range / TD odds ------------------ --- --------------- ----- ------------------- Jadan Baugh RB Rushing yards 49.6 9-100 Carries 14.3 9-23 Rushing TDs 0.61 46% 1+, 12% 2+ Receiving yards 13.3 -- Receptions 3.1 2-4 Receiving TDs 0.15 14% 1+ Vernell Brown III WR Receiving yards 49.0 13-87 Receptions 3.8 2-6 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Eric Singleton Jr. WR Rushing yards 11.1 -- Rushing TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Receiving yards 42.4 7-71 Receptions 4.6 2-8 Receiving TDs 0.10 9% 1+ Dallas Wilson WR Receiving yards 41.9 6-83 Receptions 3.4 2-5 Receiving TDs 0.47 37% 1+, 8% 2+ London Montgomery RB Rushing yards 40.8 0-67 Carries 12.1 6-20 Rushing TDs 0.38 32% 1+, 6% 2+ Receiving yards 8.7 -- Receptions 2.4 1-3 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Luke Harpring TE Receiving yards 22.2 -- Receptions 2.4 1-4 Receiving TDs 0.00 0% 1+ Lacota Dippre TE Receiving yards 17.9 -- Receptions 2.1 0-3 Receiving TDs 0.27 23% 1+ Myles Graham LB Tackles 6.9 4-9 Alfonzo Allen Jr. S Tackles 6.6 4-12 Jayden Woods LB Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ Kamran James DL Sacks 0.44 36% 1+, 7% 2+ ============================================================ GAME CONTEXT ============================================================ Missouri recent form: 3-2 over last 5 games Florida recent form: 2-3 over last 5 games Head-to-head history: Season Away Home Winner ------ ------ ------ ------ 2023 FLA 31 MIZ 33 MIZ ------------------------------------------------------------ Generated by spreadsim.com's model. See spreadsim.com/methodology for how these numbers are computed. spreadsim.com/games/10365